   
XRP has been volatile lately after failing to maintain its total holder cost base, a technical glitch that has intensified near-term pressure despite longer-term constructive signals.
According to Glassnode, the loss of realized cost base caused a wave of panic selling, turning several profitability metrics across the chain into negative territory and reviving comparisons to previous consolidation phases.
Additionally, data from Glassnode shows that the seven-day exponential moving average of XRP’s issued output earnings ratio has fallen sharply from 1.16 in July 2025 to 0.96, indicating that most coins moving on-chain are now being sold at a loss.
When the SOPR fell below one, realized losses increased and overall on-chain profitability turned negative, a pattern that closely mirrors the period from September 2021 to May 2022, during which XRP experienced prolonged consolidation before stabilizing.
Previous Glassnode updates noted that the realized price of
 While this structure remains in place, the psychological pressure on the top buyers continues to increase, increasing the risk of further distribution.
Despite this vulnerability, recent activity in the chain indicates a growing interest in the long term. Santiment reported that after XRP briefly fell below $1.15, the asset rebounded above $1.50 amid intense network activity. During the sell-off, whale accumulation soared, with 1,389 trades above $100,000, the highest level in four months.
Meanwhile, unique XRP Ledger addresses spiked to 78,727 in a single eight-hour time frame, a six-month high and a classic signal of capitulation-driven accumulation.
At the time of writing, XRP is down 1.29% to $2.97, which is underperforming a slightly positive broader market, according to CoinMarketCap. The outlook for the token now hinges on whether institutional utility and continued ledger activity can offset bearish technical momentum.
Analysts are closely watching for a recovery in the SOPR above 1 and renewed buying volume to defend support around $1.20, which could mark a shift from capitulation to base building.
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