XRP Analyst Sees 60% Chance of Big Rally as Ripple Price Reclaims $2

Analysts view XRP’s pullback as a controlled correction and not a distribution, leaving the broader bullish case intact.

The price of Ripple’s XRP token is testing a critical support level near $2.12 this week, following a rally that saw it become the world’s third-largest non-stablecoin cryptocurrency.

Subsequently, a prominent market observer has now assigned a 60% probability of even more significant upside moves for the asset.

Testing the waters for a bigger move

Analyst EGRAG CRYPTO marked that XRP remains within a defined downward channel on the five-day chart. They view the current activity as a “controlled correction” rather than a distribution.

The analyst’s framework suggests a 60% chance of an upside breakout, conditional on the price closing above the 21-period exponential moving average and breaking the top of the channel around $2.30. Such a move could open a path to targets between $3.10 and $3.30, according to EGRAG.

“Until then → it’s just an uptick in the channel, not a breakout,” the market watcher insisted.

Conversely, they see a 30% chance of continued trading within a certain range and only a 10% risk of a complete decline towards $1.

Trading activity has also supported the increased attention, with XRP commentator John Squire noticing that the token registered a global trading volume of approximately $23 million within one minute, indicating participation beyond small retail transactions.

Data cited by several observers shows that there has been strong inflows into newly launched spot

You might also like:

Price structure, data about the chain and the road ahead

According to real-time data from January 5, XRP is trading well above $2.10, reflecting a 12% gain over the past seven days, with the performance helping it overtake BNB in ​​market capitalization on January 3. The move is part of a broader recovery after a slump in late 2025, with assets now up about 4% over the past 30 days.

The short-term path has divided market participants. On the one hand, the on-chain metrics provide a bullish signal, with data from CryptoOnchain to show the XRP Taker Buy/Sell Ratio on Binance hits a one-month high, indicating that aggressive selling is waning.

Some, like Cheds Trading, identified the largest four-hour volume candle in a month as a potentially bearish sign, noting a rejection of resistance, while other observers warned of immediate technical hurdles, with selling walls between $2.17 and $2.25 that could slow progress.

All told, the outlook for XRP in 2026 remains wide open, with potential scenarios ranging from a bullish run to $10, driven by continued institutional adoption and Ripple’s business expansion, to a bearish retreat towards $1 as profit-taking accelerates and broader market conditions deteriorate.