- Detroit Lions remain contenders: The Lions simply have too much talent on their roster not to compete in the NFC North. However, staying healthy has been a recurring issue over the past two seasons, especially on defense.
- The Saints can compete in a wide open division: Despite finishing with the worst record in the division, the Saints won just two fewer games than the division champion Panthers and also only two fewer than the other two teams.
In 2025, both the Chicago Bears and New England Patriots went from last place in their respective divisions to division champions the following season. It’s another reminder of how quickly fortunes can change in the NFL and how almost every year at least one team makes the jump from worst to first.
With that in mind, we rank the eight teams that finished last in 2025 based on their likelihood of pulling off a similar turnaround in 2026.
1. Detroit Lions
The Lions simply have too much talent on their roster not to compete in the NFC North. However, staying healthy has been a recurring issue over the past two seasons, especially on defense.
Defensive backs DJ Reed, Brian Branch, Kerby Joseph and Terrion Arnold – all projected starters – were on the field for an average of just 44% of Detroit’s defensive snaps, with none of them playing more than 746 of the Lions’ 1,104 snaps on that side of the ball.
Offensively, the Lions still have elite playmakers. Amon-Ra St. Brown’s PFF grade of 90.7 ranked third among wide receivers, while Jahmyr Gibbs was sixth among running backs with an 85.6 grade. Jameson Williams finished among the top 40 wide receivers for the second straight season, and a healthy Sam LaPorta at tight end would provide an extra boost.
The biggest concern for the offense in 2025 has been the offensive line, but Penei Sewell remains arguably the best lineman in football, and Detroit has every reason to believe the young guard duo of Christian Mahogany and Tate Ratledge will take a step forward in 2026.
2. New Orleans Saints
When compiling a list like this, it is often as much about the other three teams in a division as it is about the team that finished last. That’s certainly part of the equation with the New Orleans Saints in the NFC South — a division in which none of the four teams finished above .500 in 2025.
Despite finishing with the worst record in the division, the Saints won just two fewer games than the division champion Panthers and also only two fewer than the other two teams.
There is also reason for optimism about the attack. Quarterback Tyler Shough showed plenty of promise late in the 2025 regular season, suggesting the unit could at least be serviceable with him under center. Star wide receiver Chris Olave finished with a PFF grade of 78.0, ranked 22nd out of 128 qualifying receivers and logged more than 850 snaps for the first time in his career.
If Olave can stay healthy and Shough continues his current trajectory, the Saints’ offense should be competent in 2026, which could be enough to compete in a wide-open division.
3. New York Giants
Like the Saints, the Giants enter 2026 with a second-year quarterback who showed encouraging signs as a rookie. Jaxson Dart’s PFF grade of 68.4 ranked 27th among quarterbacks, but his PFF rushing grade of 76.9 ranked seventh, highlighting the dual-threat element he brings to the offense.
New York also had one of the league’s most improved offensive lines, especially in pass protection. The unit ranked third in the NFL in 2025 with a PFF pass-blocking efficiency rating of 87.6 after surrendering just 15 sacks all season. Much of that improvement was due to left tackle Andrew Thomas staying healthy as he eclipsed 800 regular-season snaps for only the second time since his 2020 rookie campaign. Thomas rewarded that availability with a PFF pass-blocking grade of 87.2, third-most among all offensive tackles.
The addition of John Harbaugh as head coach should raise the team’s floor even further. If Dart makes a meaningful sophomore leap, regains his top target in Malik Nabers and continues to benefit from strong offensive line play, the Giants’ offense could take a significant step forward. Combine that with the wide range of possible outcomes for the other three teams in the division, and New York has a legitimate path to contend for a division title.
4. Tennessee Titans
Stop me if you’ve heard this before in this article, but the Titans also have a second-year quarterback who showed enough flashes as a rookie to be optimistic about what he can bring in Year 2. Cam Ward’s best performance came late in the season against the Chiefs in Week 16, and his 89.9 PFF overall grade in that game ranked 27th out of 512 qualifying quarterback performances from the 2025 season.
Ward probably faced the toughest situation of any of the second-year quarterbacks mentioned here. Lacking reliable weapons, Tennessee’s offensive line struggled with injuries and inconsistency all season, ranking 25th in PFF pass blocking efficiency.
That said, AFC South has historically been a division where volatility exists, even if it was stronger than normal in 2025. New head coach Robert Saleh has an opportunity to build the defense around a strong interior defensive line anchored by Jeffery Simmons. If that unit takes shape and Ward makes a leap in Year 2, the Titans could make a significant jump from previous seasons. And in this division that could be enough to challenge for the title.
5.Cleveland Browns
Volatility is rampant in the AFC North, which could opening the door for the Browns to win the division for the first time since 1989. The Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers will each have new head coaches for the first time in more than 15 years, while the Cincinnati Bengals fielded one of the league’s worst defenses in 2025 and could also lose edge defender Trey Hendrickson to free agency.
Admittedly, Cleveland struggled mightily on offense last season, combining one of the league’s weakest offensive lines and receiving corps with inconsistent quarterback play. However, the Browns still boast a strong defense, anchored by arguably the best defensive player in football, Myles Garrett. They also have promising young building blocks on the roster, including linebacker Carson Schwesinger, interior defenseman Mason Graham, tight end Harold Fannin and running back Quinshon Judkins – all drafted last year.
If those young players continue to develop and the Browns can find even modest offensive stability under new head coach Todd Monken, Cleveland could find itself in the mix. And in a division with so much uncertainty, that could be enough to rise to the top.
6. Las Vegas robbers
Two teams from the AFC West reached the playoffs in 2025 – including the conference’s No. 1 seed – while the Kansas City Chiefs remain firmly in the mix as the division favorite in 2026. That leaves the Raiders, at least on paper, as the fourth-best team in the division.
Still, the NFL moves quickly. Just look at the Bears and Patriots of 2025. A new coaching staff, now led by Klint Kubiak, could bring meaningful change to Las Vegas.
The Raiders are widely expected to select quarterback Fernando Mendoza with the No. 1 overall pick. If the former Indiana signal caller adapts to the NFL quickly, he will have legitimate top talent to lean on. Tight end Brock Bowers, left tackle Kolton Miller and – for now – edge defender Maxx Crosby are difference makers at premium positions.
7. Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals are in a difficult position. All three of their NFC West rivals reached the playoffs in 2025; two advanced to the NFC Championship Game and the Seahawks went on to win the Super Bowl. Realistically, Arizona faces an uphill battle to get ahead of even one of those teams in 2026 — let alone all three.
There is also limited clarity on the roster heading into the offseason. The starting quarterback job remains uncertain, and the wide receiver situation is similarly murky after Michael Wilson signed former first-round pick Marvin Harrison Jr. defeated in the course of the process. While Trey McBride may be the best tight end in football, he alone cannot carry the offense.
There were flashes in defense, but consistency was lacking. A full second season of interior defenseman Walter Nolen and cornerback Will Johnson could provide a meaningful boost, but even with internal development, Arizona still appears to have significant catching up to do in a loaded division.
8. New York jets
By trading cornerback Sauce Gardner and interior defenseman Quinnen Williams during the 2025 regular season, the Jets effectively signaled that long-term roster alignment now outweighs short-term competitiveness. With Gardner, Williams and nickel corner Michael Carter II all gone, New York lacks top talent at every level of the defense.
The view of the attack is not much rosier. The Jets fielded perhaps the weakest group of pass catchers in the league in 2025 and are expected to lose running back Breece Hall in free agency. The quarterback situation also offers little reassurance.
All things considered, it would be one of the biggest surprises of the 2026 season if the Jets were to seriously compete for the AFC East – especially in a division that also includes the reigning AFC champions and Josh Allen’s Buffalo Bills.
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