Imai settled for an average annual value of $18 million, which fell below most expectations. Houston secured a short-term deal at a reasonable salary by offering opt-out opportunities after each of the first two seasons. Grid source projects their opening day salary around $242 million. They have an estimated $238 million in luxury tax liabilities. The Astros must also pay a $9.975 million release fee to Imai’s NPB club, the Seibu Lions. Yes not count against their luxury tax book, although it’s a not insignificant amount for what could amount to a year of Imai’s services if he opts out.
The Astros opened the 2025 season with a payroll of $220 million. Their end-of-season luxury tax number was just under $246 million, leaving them with a modest bill ($1.5 million) for exceeding the $241 million base threshold. The cap for next season is $244 million. They are already projected within $6 million of that number. A team’s luxury tax payroll isn’t finalized until the end of the year, meaning in-season acquisitions are counted toward that amount on a pro-rata basis. This includes all unlocked incentives and contracts for players on minor league deals selected to the MLB roster.
Early offseason reports indicated that Houston owner Jim Crane was reluctant to go outside the tax line for what would be a third straight season. Chandler Rome of The Athletic wrote this morning that this remains the case even with Imai in the books.
Will that be a strong mandate? Crane has also been unwilling to pay the CBT in each of the past two seasons. That quickly changed in 2024, when they responded to a season-ending injury Kendall Graveman by signing Josh Hader – a deal that took them into tax territory. Houston remained below the CBT line entering the ’25 season. Then came an opportunity to reacquire Carlos Correa at the deadline, pushing them up again. The owner has changed his mind before.
As it stands now, it’s hard to see the Astros staying under the tax line through the entire 2026 season. They would be very limited in what they can accomplish at the trade deadline. RosterResource’s calculation is unofficial and pending resolution of some arbitration cases, so there are significant error bars in the $238 million estimate, but the broader point remains that they are not far below the CBT line. Some clubs prefer to have more than $10 million in salary cap space for in-season additions.
That could lead to the front office freeing up a few million in an offseason trade. Let’s see how their payroll is trending.
Players with guaranteed contracts (10)
Correa, Altuve and Alvarez are clearly not being traded. Hader anchors the bullpen and is entering the third season of a five-year contract; he’s not going anywhere. Imai, Weiss and Pearson signed free agent contracts this offseason. Then there are only three options left for this group.
Javier is entering the fourth season of a five-year, $64 million extension. His deal comes with a $12.8 million luxury tax hit. Tommy John surgery wiped out most of his final two seasons. He made eight starts back at the end of last year. His odor percentage was lower compared to pre-surgery levels, but the raw stuff didn’t look much different. It’s fair to attribute his inconsistency to some post-layoff rust. A team with a deeper rotation might consider selling low in this situation, but that’s not a luxury the Astros can afford. They would have to replace him in the middle of the rotation and it’s unlikely they can find someone better in free agency for less than $13 million per year.
McCullers will make $17 million in the final season of his five-year extension. Injuries cost him the entire 2023-2024 season. Last year he pitched to a 6.51 ERA, about three more IL stints. If he were a free agent, he might be looking at minor league offers. No one takes any of this contact unless the Astros draft a prospect to convince a team to pay a small percentage. Maybe that would work for a rebuilding club, but McCullers also committed his full non-trade rights when he passed the 10-year service threshold last season. There probably isn’t much that can be done about this.
Of the players on guaranteed deals, only Walker remains. He owes $40 million over the next two seasons and adds $20 million to the tax book. His first year in Houston was a disappointment. Despite hitting 27 home runs, he had a below-average batting line of .238/.297/.421 over 640 plate appearances. Walker’s usually excellent defensive qualities deteriorated. He picked things up offensively with an OPS of nearly .800 in the second half, although even that story is clouded by a .277 on-base percentage in September.
Overall, Baseball Reference rated Walker as a replacement-level player. FanGraphs credited him with one win. He wouldn’t get anywhere near $40 million for his age 35-36 seasons if he were a free agent. Even getting another team to cover half the contract would be a tall order. (Ryan O’Hearnwho is two years younger just signed a two-year contract for $14.5 million per year, coming off a .281/.366/.437 season that was rated between 2 and 3 WAR.) The Astros could probably find a buyer if they paid Walker up to $7-8 million per season, but that would be a lot of dead money to eat up a third of the contract’s life. General manager Dana Brown downplayed the chance to move Walker during the GM Meetings in early November, calling him the team’s “everyday first baseman.”
Arbitration Eligible Players (12)
- Enyel De Los Santos, Bryan Abreu, Steven Okert, Isaac Paredes, Jesus Sanchez, Jeremy Pena, Jake Meyers, Hunter Brown, Yainer Diaz, Nick Allen, Bennett Sousa, Hayden Wesneski
There is no chance of a Hunter Brown trade. Dana Brown said during the Winter Meetings that teams didn’t even ask about Peña because they were aware there was “no way” they would move their franchise shortstop (via Rome).
De Los Santos will earn $1.6 million after avoiding arbitration. The Astros couldn’t have tendered him if they just wanted that small amount off the books. Okert, Allen, Sousa and Wesneski are all projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for salaries of $2 million or less. The savings compared to the $780,000 minimum would be negligible. They are useful role players or, in Wesneski’s case, a potentially valuable long-term piece.
Abreu ($5.9MM projection) and Diaz ($4.5MM projection) are probably too valuable to trade. The former is their best setup guy, the latter their starting catcher. While there would be strong interest in both, they are not easily replaced by someone who makes the league minimum. That leaves three players: Paredes, Meyers and Sánchez.
Paredes is projected at a salary of $9.3 million with two years of remaining control. The GM said in November that the team had “no interest” in moving him. Paredes had an excellent start to his Astros stint, hitting 20 home runs with a .254/.352/.458 line over 438 plate appearances. He missed most of the second half due to a significant hamstring injury. The Astros responded by acquiring Correa to play third base. Paredes could have a role at second base, but he’s unlikely to be a strong defender there. Walker is listed first for now, while Alvarez and Altuve split left field and are designated hitters.
The Astros dangled Meyers for a controllable starter early in the offseason. It would have been a bit of a sell-high situation after posting a career-best .292/.354/.373 at the plate. He’s less likely to move now that the Astros have dealt outfield prospects Jacob Melton to Tampa Bay in three-team trade to land starter Mike Burrows. Meyers’ $3.5 million projection isn’t burdensome, and trading him would put a lot of confidence in a rookie Zach Cole to act as an everyday midfielder.
This may leave Sánchez as their top candidate for a pure salary dump. He is expected to make a salary of $6.5 million, and it came as a surprise that Houston offered him a contract at all. Sánchez was a disappointment after a deadline deal from Miami, hitting .199/.269/.342 over 160 plate appearances while making a handful of defensive mistakes. They could acquire Sánchez and add a cheaper left-handed free agent outfielder (e.g Mike Tauchman, Michael Conforto) to compete with Cole and Cam Smith for playing time in right field.
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