Will ‘One Battle After Another’ Follow the Anti-ICE Protest Wave to Best Picture at the Oscars?

The film praised by critics for its timeliness may be benefiting from the news cycle at the right time.

“One Battle After Another,” Paul Thomas Anderson’s politically charged thriller, has maintained its frontrunner status for Best Picture at this year’s Oscars since the fall. If you read my review, you know that I recommend it for those who are able to compartmentalize their personal politics, because it terribly left.

It’s about a group of self-proclaimed revolutionaries on the run from a cabal of white nationalist authoritarians. The opening scene literally shows them freeing illegal immigrants from a detention center — not to mention they also bomb courthouses and offices of anti-abortion lawmakers. One man’s revolutionary is another man’s domestic terrorist.

‘SEND HELP’ REVIEW: RACHEL MCADAMS, DYLAN O’BRIEN LEIDEN COMIC AMAZING DESERT ISLAND THRILLER

Other than that, “OBAA” is a well-made movie. Despite the running time of almost 3 hours, it never lags behind. The performances of the cast led by Leonardo DiCaprio, the score and editing were top-notch. Would I give it the best photo? No. 2025 was a weaker year for movies overall — I’d vote for “Hamnet” if I were a member of the Academy — but a Best Picture win was still always attainable.

Now, with all the unrest that has occurred in Minnesota, a Best Picture win may already be on the horizon.

‘MERCY’ REVIEW: CHRIS PRATT HAS TO PROVE HIS INNOCENCE TO AI JUDGE IN FORGETABLE CYBERT THILLER

“OBAA” won the Golden Globe for Best Comedy or Musical (it is neither a comedy nor a musical. Don’t even get me started on how movies and TV shows are ranked at the Golden Globes). Since then, the film has received thirteen Oscar nominations, more than any other film aside from Ryan Coogler’s vampire thriller ‘Sinners’, which broke records with sixteen nominations.

(L-R) Benicio del Toro, Teyana Taylor, Sara Murphy, Chase Infiniti, Leonardo DiCaprio, Paul Thomas Anderson and Sean Penn accept the award for Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy for “One Battle After Another” onstage during the 83rd Annual Golden Globe Awards at The Beverly Hilton on January 11, 2026 in Beverly Hills, California.

But the current political climate will likely propel “OBAA” into the Best Picture race. Liberal Hollywood isn’t shy about making a statement. Just look at all the “Be Good” pins worn at the Golden Globes in honor of Renee Good and the marathon ICE bashing at the Grammys last week. They will use “OBAA” as a giant “F you” to Donald Trump and his administration, despite the irony that “OBAA” would have been released regardless of whether Trump or Kamala Harris won the 2024 election.

’28 YEARS LATER: THE BONE TEMPLE’ REVIEW: RALPH FIENNES BRINGS LEVITY TO THE EXPERIMENTAL ZOMBIE SAGA

Furthermore, many in the Academy probably believe that Paul Thomas is finally owed Anderson an Oscar. Anderson has now been nominated fourteen times and was previously rejected for films such as ‘Boogie Nights’, ‘Magnolia’ and ‘There Will Be Blood’. In other words, he’s getting the same treatment Christopher Nolan got two years ago with his Best Picture winner “Oppenheimer,” after going decades without a win.

Between national politics and Academy politics, the wind is certainly blowing at ‘OBAA’s back.

The unrest in Minneapolis was a top priority in Hollywood between the “Be Good” pins worn at the Golden Globes and the anti-ICE rhetoric at the Grammys. (Getty Images)

Is there a chance that a disruption will occur? Of course, “Sinners” — which surpasses previous record holders “Titanic,” “La La Land” and “All About Eve” in total nominations — is clearly adored by the Academy and will likely pick up a few trophies in the craft categories. But as we’ve seen before, like last year with “Emilia Pérez,” having the most nominations doesn’t always mean a Best Picture win. And the Academy may believe that since the 39-year-old Coogler likely has a long career as a writer and director ahead of him, voters will wait before giving him an Oscar and hand it to the 55-year-old Anderson instead.

‘PRIMATE’ REVIEW: PARAMOUNT TO RELEASE SWINGING IN 2026 WITH WILD HORROR FLICK ABOUT A NIGHTMARE PET CHIMP

“Hamnet” is perhaps the darkest dark horse in this race. It did upset “Sinners” by winning Best Drama at the Golden Globes, though notably it has a very different set of voters (mostly foreign press). However, the Academy has welcomed more and more foreign filmmakers and actors in recent years, so we’re seeing more and more foreign films nominated for Best Picture. They can get behind the Shakespearean family drama on the very American-oriented ‘OBAA’ and ‘Sinners’. What may be working against “Hamnet” is the fact that writer/director Chloé Zhao just won two Oscars for her work on the 2021 Best Picture winner “Nomadland.”

Paul Thomas Anderson, the director of “One Battle After Another,” has been nominated for an Oscar 14 times for decades, but with no wins, which may encourage Academy voters to finally give him a trophy. (John Shearer/WireImage)

The only real indicators that will confirm “OBAA’s” frontrunner status between now and the Oscars are how the various guild awards will play out in the coming weeks, primarily the Producers Guild Awards, the Directors Guild Awards, the Writers Guild Awards and the Screen Actors Guild Awards (now called the Actor Awards), since many guild voters are also Academy voters. If “OBAA” wins this one, the odds are incredibly high that a Best Picture win will follow. If other films like ‘Sinners’ and ‘Hamnet’ emerge as big winners, it could spice up the race.

With all that in mind, “OBAA” still has the edge. And since the firestorm over ICE isn’t likely to die down anytime soon, “OBAA” will almost certainly be our next Best Picture winner.

CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP