Commenting on current trends, Pravesh Gour, senior technical analyst at Swastika Investmart, said Nifty will be mainly driven by global cues this week as no major domestic macro announcements are planned. “This makes the Indian stock market more sensitive to international developments, currency movements and FII activity,” he noted.Core PPI, retail sales and October’s PCE inflation report will be key signals. Any upside surprise could push US Treasury yields higher and strengthen the dollar – which would typically trigger FII outflows, Gour said. He added that the Thanksgiving holiday in the US on Thursday will lead to weak global liquidity.
Factors likely to influence market movement when trading resumes this week:
1. US markets
Indian markets are expected to take cues from US stocks, which ended with strong gains on Friday, after Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said he sees “room for further adjustment” in the policy rate, signaling possible support for another cut at the Fed’s meeting next month.
Williams’ comments, made at a conference in Chile, sparked a rally on Wall Street, the Associated Press reported.
The Dow 30 closed at 46,245.40, up 493.15 points or 1.08%, while the S&P 500 gained 64.23 points or 0.98% to end at 6,602.99. The Nasdaq Composite ended at 22,273.10, up 195.04 points or 0.88%.
2. Corporate action
At least six stocks will be in the spotlight this week as they trade ex-dividend: Ingersoll-Rand (India), Power Finance Corporation (PFC), Shyamkamal Investments, AK Capital Services and Meera Industries. Meanwhile, HDFC Asset Management Company and Thyrocare Technologies will trade ex-bonus next week, with record dates of Wednesday, November 26 and Friday, November 28 respectively to determine shareholders’ eligibility for bonus shares.
Also read: Corporate moves: HDFC AMC and Thyrocare Technologies shares to trade ex-bonus next week. Check details
Infosys, India’s second largest IT services company, will conclude its share buyback period worth Rs 18,000 crore on Wednesday, November 26.
3) FII/DII action
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) turned net sellers last week, offloading Indian equities worth Rs 188 crore. On Friday alone, they sold shares worth Rs 1,766.05 crore. In contrast, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers and bought shares worth Rs 3,161.61 crore.
Also read: FII sells moderate products up to Rs 3,788 crore in November so far, 2025 outflow at Rs 1.43 lakh cr. These three trends suggest a reversal
4. Technical factors
Decoding Nifty’s technical setup, Nilesh Jain, Head – Technical and Derivatives Equity Research at Centrum Broking, said the index continues to form higher highs and higher lows and is trying to break past its immediate resistance at 26,200, but profit booking at higher levels is limiting the upside.
“Momentum indicators and oscillators remain in buy mode on both the daily and weekly charts. A consolidation phase is likely ahead of the next move up, with Nifty expected to move within a broader range of 25,800-26,200. The 21-DMA near 25,840 is likely to act as key support. A break above the recent swing high could open the doors to fresh all-time highs around 26,300. The Volatility Index However, it jumps over 10% and crossing 13 is a concern – it needs to cool down below 12.5 before the bulls regain firm control,” Jain said.
5) Rupee vs Dollar
The weakness of the Indian rupee continues to weigh on domestic equity markets. On Friday, the INR hit a new low of 89.65 against the US dollar before closing at 89.61, pressured by US sanctions on certain Indian companies linked to Iran’s oil business.
The near-term outlook remains challenging in a context of a resurgent US dollar, with the DXY climbing back above 100. The dollar index has risen 0.9% over the past five sessions, extending its three-month gain to 2.5%.
The rupee, which has fallen 4.6% against the dollar so far this year, could weaken further, said Anuj Gupta, director of Ya Wealth Global Research. Diminishing expectations of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in December have boosted the dollar’s strength over the past three months.
Gupta expects the rupee to test the 90 level against the dollar in the near term. For the DXY, a rise to 102–103 cannot be ruled out, he added.
Read more: US sanctions and delays in trade deals drag the rupee to a new record low at 89.61. A decline of 4.6% this year, what now?
6) IPO watch
In the primary market, two stocks will debut on the exchanges this week. Sudeep Pharma, whose IPO closes on Tuesday, November 25, is expected to list on Friday, November 28, while Excelsoft Technologies will debut on Wednesday, November 26. The Street will be watching these listings closely, given the strong recent debuts of Billionbrains Garage Ventures (Groww), Pine Labs and PhysicsWallah.
This week, three SME numbers will also open for subscriptions. SSMD Agrotech India will open its books on November 25, aiming to raise Rs 34.09 crore through a price range of Rs 114-121 per share; the issue closes on November 27. The Mother Nutri Foods IPO will kick off on November 26 with plans to raise Rs 39.59 crore at a price band of Rs 111-117 per share. KK Silk Mills is the third issue, with a price range of Rs 36-38 per share.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions expressed by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
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