Why Novak Djokovic’s legendary return will be crucial in his quest for a 25th Grand Slam | ATP tour | Tennis

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Why Djokovic’s legendary return will be crucial in his quest for a 25th Grand Slam

Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analyzes the Serbian’s signature shot
January 29, 2026

Novak Djokovic is widely regarded as one of the best returners in tennis history. The Serbian has won a higher percentage of return games than any active player and has put pressure on the best servers throughout his career.

The 38-year-old will have to do his utmost to return to Rod Laver Arena on Friday night if he hopes to snap a five-match losing streak against two-time defending champion Jannik Sinner.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis shows that the return – long one of the Serbian’s strongest points – has been where he has fought against Sinner in recent clashes.

The Italian leads their Lexus ATP Head2Head series 6-4, including five straight wins dating back to Sinner’s Davis Cup victory in November 2023. The No. 2 player in the PIF ATP Rankings can become the first player to win six consecutive tour-level matches against Djokovic.

But the 10-time Australian Open champion can make a good start in fending off that history by banking on his signature return. During his losing streak against Sinner, the 24-time champion has not broken serve more than twice in a match and in two of his defeats he has not earned a break point.

Djokovic has twice broken eight chances in 61 return matches in his past four meetings with Sinner, winning only 3.3 percent of his return matches in those meetings. That’s a far cry from the Serb’s years of excellence upon his return.

Djokovic has proven over the years that he has the Kryptonite for the best servers in the world. Entering the Australian Open, Djokovic had won 31.6 percent of his career return matches, the seventh-best mark ever. From 2009 through 2021, the 101-time tour-level title winner won at least 30 percent of his return races each season, including an astonishing 38.8 percent in 2011. Since 2021, he has finished sixth or better on Tour every year.

Career Return Games Won % – Active Players

So far in this edition of the Australian Open, Djokovic has won 36 percent of his return matches, making him 18 better than in 50 matches. Those matches did not come against a player like Sinner, who has led the ATP Tour in percentage of service games won in each of the past two seasons, according to Infosys ATP Stats.

But it’s still a positive sign for Djokovic, who has recorded a higher number of first-serve return points this fortnight than fellow semifinalists Sinner (32%), Carlos Alcaraz (35%) and Alexander Zverev (32%).

That said, Djokovic is aware of the challenge ahead, especially from Sinner and Alcaraz, who have won the past eight majors.

“Are they better than me and all the other guys right now? Yes, they are. I mean, the quality and the level is great. It’s great. It’s phenomenal,” Djokovic said after advancing to the semifinals. “But does that mean I’m walking out with a white flag? No. I’m going to fight until the last shot, until the last point, and do my utmost to challenge them.”

Vintage returns are the key.