Last year, the White Sox position player rookies incredibly exceeded expectations. Kyle Teel and Edgar Quero quickly emerged as one of the most dynamic catching platoons in the league, and Colson Montgomery had an explosive debut month. Now it’s Miguel Vargas’ turn.
While it wasn’t quite the breakout season Sox fans would have wanted, Vargas bounced back from three disappointing seasons. He slashed .175/.273/.312 with a -1.0 WAR in 171 games from 2022-2024, but he was closer to league average in 2025. Despite missing almost all of August due to separate injuries, Vargas improved his slash line to .234/.316/.401 and his WAR to 1.9 over 138 games, the longest season of his career. Despite its mediocre production, this leap in performance is long overdue.
Among his below-average statistical traits, Vargas actually has several characteristics of a successful hitter. His bat-to-ball skills were the highlight of the season, as he limited his chase and whiff rates to 21.6% and 20.6%, placing him in the top 75 percent of all qualified MLB hitters. And he had a well-above-average strikeout rate of 17.6%.
Another indicator of future success is his ability to do damage outside the zone. Vargas surprisingly has a higher run value outside the zone than inside it, resulting in run values above 20.0 in areas on the pull side. When Vargas chases, he makes the throwers pay, showcasing his exceptional hand-eye coordination and ability to make contact.
This chart highlights the biggest obstacle in Vargas’ path to a breakout season. To become a better slugger, he must become more comfortable hitting outside of his favorite spots. Vargas shrinks his zone by choosing to deliver pitches in nearly a third of the strike zone, as evidenced by his swing percentage profile below compared to the league average. He swings on less than nearly 50 percent of pitches to the outside and bottom of the zone, despite having above-average ball-pulling strength in both regions.
His slower bat speed is strongly related to his tendency to avoid those areas. Vargas already has a below-average bat speed, namely 120 km per hour. This is only an increase of 0.8 km/h from 2024, and is likely attributed to the weight he lost and the muscle he built last offseason. However, his bat speed is still below league average and it reduces his ability to effectively hit pitches throughout the strike zone. To gain more confidence and stop giving away easy shots, Vargas should work on shortening his swing, gaining muscle or a combination of the two this offseason.
If Vargas wants to remind Sox fans why the Dodgers drafted him in 2017, he will become a more versatile hitter and play to his strengths at the plate. Vargas has the discipline and strength to become one of the most productive players in Chicago’s lineup, but he must be able to attack the full zone with confidence and authority. He has the makings of an above-average hitter, but he needs to make a few adjustments to help him break out.
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