Why are Dodgers not Superequipo | Baseball Prospectus

Translated by Pepe Latorre

The Dodgers are not the Superequipo that many thought. It is quite clear because two weeks after the end of the season the title of Champions of the West Division of the National League is played with the parents. They will probably be the first, but they succeed in reaching their pecota projection (91-71) will have the fourth record of the National League behind Milwaukee, Philadelphia and Chicago. Since 2016, that record would hold the percentage of lower victories in the franchise.

The projections were much more optimistic before the season. Pecota predicted a record of 103-59 and Craig Goldstein A 106-56. These were reasonable expectations if we take into account how they wore on paper, where they had no real weaknesses. Good, Maybe just one.

This is an article of “What would have happened if …?”, So you remember that they are still a postseas team and that they have enough talent to win another World Series. Have one Shohei OhtaniThat it is practically only (unless you are the angels), not to mention at least three other likely members of the Hall of Fame and many other players with sufficient quality to ever be present in the voices.

So … what happened? Some players did not comply with expectations, such as Mookie Betts y Tanner ScottBut others surpassed them like Will Smith y Andy -Pages. The biggest problem of the Dodgers has not been who plays for them, but who is not.

In our injured board, the Dodgers stand out because their players combine for 2,048 days in the injured list. It is just as much the largest amount in the MLB. The stars, which occupy second place, are almost 1,936, but most teams are around 1,000. The Phillies have only lost 300.

The record of Los Angeles does not even contain two important injuries that were not included in the injured list. Betts suffered a disease in March, causing him to lose 9 kilos and did not let him be the same Until a few weeks ago. Ohtani remains the best batter in the world, with the possible exception of Aaron JudgeThat is why he was not in the list of injured as a pitcher when he recovered from the operation of Tommy John. He only launched again in June and this year only collected 36 tickets.

They are currently 11 players in the injured list, including nine pitchers and their two best recipients. Smith and Dalton HurryOne of his most promising prospects for the year. Eight out of nine pitchers are on the injured list for 60 days. This year they have placed at least 20 different pitchers on the injured list, including five who have lost the entire season. For contextualization, they used a total of only 22 pitchers during the Rookie year of Clayton Kershaw.

Having so many injuries in the body of pitchers is the product of his design. His philosophy is to collect so many good pitchers, although susceptible to injuries, and expect that when they are healthy, they can make a difference in October. This includes one Tyler GlasNowKershaw, Blake SnellOhtani and, yes, Roki Sasaki.

The absence of Ohtani and Kershaw in De Heuvel was expected because they started the season, but Sasaki has been a big disappointment. The baseball world enjoyed the beauty with him when Japan dominated between 2021 and 2023, but in every season small ailments suffered suffering and some power lost in his brilliant line in 2024. The 2025 campaign started with the Dodgers with enormous expectations, but only 15.6% of the rival Public Schouden. He is currently in rehabilitation in Oklahoma City, but he has had problems in the rear cross -style with a relationship between strikeouts and basic bases that is not much better than the one he had in Los Angeles, although he found some speed in his latest rehabilitation outlet.

From a cold and analytical point of view This is the “acceptable risk” of building a template full of jugs that are susceptible to injuries. Some of them will have lost and Lucky Seasons can correct next year. Apart from Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who has been consistently brilliant throughout the year, no one else will reach 120 tickets. Very few teams can afford to look for quality and quantity, such as Dodgers, especially knowing that most of them will only rise to the hill at intervals.

Although many matches have been lost due to injuries, the lost chain percentage is not that bad. 20.15% of the estimated chain that is sacrificed for the wounded list takes the 21st position in the MLB.

Because they have formed a “super team” in theory, they are willing to resist injuries better than most clubs. For example, it was difficult to lose Alex shutters For 17 days (from 23 August to 9 September) for a relaxation in the sloping, but it did not mean such an important part of the expected chain as in another team.

Colorado has been much healthier this year than Dodgers. They have lost less than a quarter of their warp, but their lost chain percentage is in fact greater. The really incredible thing is that the Rockies, with a record of 41-109, had to lose what Warp had to lose.

If you see the results, it is not clear that his acceptable risk silosophy has passed this year. It is true that his offensive third place of the MLB occupied in scored races, with 5.1 per match, but his career prevention has been regularly. They occupied the 13th position in the MLB with 4.32 races allowed per game, but they have launched better than that. They are fourth in Dra with a 4.27 mark, only behind Philadelphia, Tampa Bay and Houston.

At the moment they have healthy and in the rotation to their six best openers: Yamamot Emmet Sheehan. Evan Phillips y Brock Stewart They are the only two injured relievers they had before the start of the season. Even Sasaki could return to help in some role before the late season. Here is exactly where they wanted to be. Despite the injuries, although it is true that they have only won seven of their last 15 games. This is baseball, Comadre.

Maybe not this amount. They had to use Ben Casparis y Walker Buehler As openers in the World Series last year and beat the Yankees in five games. The point is that they are willing to win in all possible ways (that is why the crazy pre -season projections) but do not have all operating systems at the same time. If everything is as planned, they do not have to work 100% of their ability to win the World Series again.