Why $88,800 could decide Bitcoin’s next big move, according to Alpharactal’s CEO

Staying below the Active Realized Price means discomfort and possibly more selling, making $88,800 a crucial level for Bitcoin’s next direction.

After a mid-week relief, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading slightly above $87,000, but it is still below a key level that could determine its next move.

A new observation suggests that the inability to rise above $88,800 could lead to more profit-taking as active investors continue to take losses and market pressure increases.

Bitcoin is fighting the $88.8K mark

Bitcoin’s position below the Active Realized Price, currently around $88,800, has become a critical point of interest, according to Alphractal founder and CEO Joao Wedson. The Active Realized Price is indicative of the average cost basis of active investors, excluding lost, dormant or untouched coins, and therefore represents what the most engaged participants actually paid for their BTC.

When Bitcoin trades above this level, the environment generally stabilizes as most active investors make profits, which ultimately eases selling pressure, and the market tends to find firmer footing. However, with BTC still below this threshold, sentiment is changing. Wedson explained that this setup can make investors uncomfortable, and historically such conditions favor an increase in short-term selling, especially if the price struggles to regain that level quickly.

The founder also added that this is not a call to panic, but that it is important to pay close attention. If the asset fails to recover the Active Realized Price in the coming days, additional profit taking may occur. On the other hand, a decisive move back above $88,800 would mean strength and renewed confidence, and active investors could return to profits. This outcome generally eases market pressure and supports more constructive momentum.

In addition to technical pressure, Santiment recently found that wallets holding at least 100 BTC have risen by 91 since November 11, while smaller wallets, especially those holding 0.1 BTC or less, have fallen. This pattern has historically been linked to long-term price strength as retail capitulates and whaling piles up.

Historically favorable zone

Another important indicator in the chain is now sending a historically significant signal. The Puell Multiple does have that decreased back into the ‘Discount Zone’, meaning miners earn less than their usual average and may be under financial pressure. When this indicator falls below 1, it often indicates periods when Bitcoin is trading below its fair value.

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In previous cycles, major market rebounds have often started from these discount levels. While this does not guarantee an immediate bottom, it has repeatedly been in line with the start of strong recovery phases. With the Puell Multiple returning to this range, the market may be entering a lower risk, higher reward environment, where new upward trends typically begin.