Investors who look at their statements of a year SIP (Systematic Investment Plan) can see red of red. With the total markets in the past year, some regulations show a negative return. But data indicates that a single year does not break through SIP mathematics in the long term.
A Bl.portfolio Study of categories for stock funds and index history shows that although short-term losses are not unusual, almost every fund sip goes back to a positive area in two or three years.
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Our analysis of 289 actively managed investment funds for shares shows that 23 of them achieved a negative return on a year of SIPs from 3 September 2025. That is around 8 percent of the total. The weakness was concentrated in value-oriented funds, dividend yield schemes and a few focused and flexi-cap funds (see table). Large cap and counter funds, on the other hand, had no negative return for a year. As soon as the horizon is extended, the photo starts to change.
Sip
In SIPs of two years, for example, only six funds of 269 were negative. That is only 2.2 percent. By three years, the negative SIP number is shrinking to a single fund. That is less than half a percent of the universe of 247 fund. This shows that a year of snapshots can be misleading. Investment funds are designed for long -term investment. In the past year, SENSEX, BSE MidCap fell 7.4 percent and BSE Smallcap 6.1 percent, making point-to-point snapshots look weaker than the trend. But extend the horizon to three years, and the Sesex is still with 11 percent (CAGR), mid-caps (more than 21 percent and small caps (more than 22 percent). The five-year photo is even stronger.
Point-to-point data tell part of the story. But what if we look at every possible sip window in the past decade? A rolling SIP analysis of the Sesex shows that a year SIPs were negative about 10 percent of the time. The worst time to do a SIP was April 2019 to March 2020. At the moment the return fell to -39 percent. But the same sip, when the next three years lasted, turned into a profit of more than 20 percent per year. For five years the return established almost 16 percent per year.
Three -year -old SIPs in the Sesex were rarely negative, with less than 5 percent of the rolling windows that loses. Five -year -old Sensex Sips were never negative, even during extreme market shocks.
Published on September 6, 2025
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