Artemi Panarin has been invisible
A lot of digital ink has been spilled about Artemi Panarin’s future with the Rangers, much more so than Panarin’s current (and possibly final) season with the Rangers. Panarin didn’t necessarily take a step back in the traditional sense of the word in the 2024-2025 season, he just didn’t reach 120 points for the second year in a row. He “regressed” back to his career norms, while the Rangers as a collective laid an egg on the full season.
Panarin’s terrible start this season – 7 points in 14 games, but also 3 points in 13 games and a 6-game pointless streak – has essentially shut down the entire Rangers offense. Among forwards, Panarin is still second in scoring, behind just JT Miller’s 8 points. That sounds great and can be spun to be decent enough, but being second on a team that can’t score is like saying you’re the second-best QB on the New York Jets.
Without Panarin’s point-per-game production, the rest of the offense suffers. It’s no coincidence that Alexis Lafreniere also can’t score when he’s normally on a line and power play unit with Panarin. Laf isn’t ready to be the focal point of a line yet, so he needs Panarin to draw attention so he can take advantage of it. If Panarin doesn’t, it will be affected by Laf and anyone who plays with Panarin.
To think that Panarin’s struggles aren’t directly related to the power play struggles, other players’ struggles, and why the overall product looks bad would be missing the point. Panarin drives the offense. If he doesn’t click, his line doesn’t click and the power play doesn’t click. If he can’t score in 5v5, the opposition will focus on the guys who are playing better, like JT Miller and Mika Zibanejad.
Panarin’s problems aren’t the only reason why Rangers can’t score, but they certainly play an important role.
No one has replaced Chris Kreider’s production
The argument that the Rangers miss Chris Kreider is rooted in two points: Kreider is off to a good start in Anaheim and the Rangers have never replaced his production. There is a delicious irony in the fact that the two forced players – Kreider and Jacob Trouba – are flourishing in Anaheim, while the Rangers can’t score to save their lives. Despite Trouba, Kreider is the big vacancy that was simply never filled.
When healthy, Kreider has been one of the most consistent scorers in the NHL over the past seven seasons. Even before his 52-goal explosion in 2021-22, Kreider was hitting the mark for 25 goals over the course of 82 games. He probably wasn’t the goalscorer he was during those three years, but he wasn’t the player we saw last season either, playing through dizziness and other injuries and still scoring 22 goals in 68 games.
Kreider has now done that nine goals in nine games with Anaheim and looks like the same player he was before dizziness and a broken hand derailed his entire season. GM and fans alike ran him out of town and never replaced his production or role. It goes further than just the 25 goals and (low estimate) 40 points. It’s how his presence up front was such an integral part of the Rangers’ offense and power play that they simply haven’t replaced and can’t be replicated, even in total.
The player who comes closest to replicating Kreider’s production is Taylor Raddysh, which is objectively hilarious if you strip away the emotions of the Rangers’ struggles to start the season. Say what you will about getting more production from Lafreniere, Will Cuylle or other players, the Rangers never really replaced him.
Lafreniere’s best season was 2023-2024, going 28-29-57, which will likely be where his career averages will be at their peak. If we use last year (28-17-45) as his low-end production at his peak, even completing 50% of Kreider’s goals puts him on a 35-goal pace. Lafreniere has never shown he can do that without power play time (as mentioned above, influenced by Panarin).
Cuylle broke out last year with a 20-25-45 line in 82 games. Adding 50% of Kreider’s production also puts him on a 35-goal pace. Is that a fair prognosis for Cuylle with only one season to his name? Playing primarily with JT Miller and Mika Zibanejad, Cuylle also struggled to start the season.
Are Lafreniere and Cuylle capable of 35 goal seasons? Maybe, but the jury is still out.
And this only concerns quantifiable figures such as goals and points. We haven’t even started moving the best front-line presence in the NHL and a key part of one of the most lethal power plays in Rangers history without even thinking about how that role could be replaced. The combination of strength, awareness and deflection is something this Rangers team doesn’t have.
So who do the Rangers miss more?
The boring answer is that the Rangers will likely miss both Kreider and Panarin equally. But to understand which one they will ultimately miss more, we need to see Panarin figure things out. Ideally, he gets going and has a cascading effect on everything else: Lafreniere, the power play, secondary scoring and everything in between. Until that happens, we won’t know if it’s Kreider or Panarin.
For example, if Panarin figures it out at 5v5 and the Rangers still can’t score on the power play, then the answer is clearly Kreider.
If Panarin never finds out, maybe the answer is Panarin, since he’s the guy who has to run this team.
But you all want an answer: so for me it’s Panarin. The Rangers go the way he goes. They can handle a shooting slump from Miller and Zibanejad where Panarin goes. They can distract Lafreniere’s attention or even get Lafreniere going if Panarin finds out. The Cuylle-Miller-Zibanejad line would have some easier defensive assignments once Panarin gets going. Then, and only then, will we see if Laf and Cuylle can replace Kreider’s production.
Or maybe the answer is Vincent Trocheck.
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