(Note: Submitted questions have been edited for clarity and length.)
We didn’t get out of a 12 or 13 seed the first weekend since Oregon State in 2021. If we want to dive even further, a mid-sized 12/13 seed didn’t make it to its first weekend since 2013 (shout out to La Salle). Which mid-major 12/13 seed do you see making it through the first weekend? (This question eliminates teams like Saint Louis and possibly Miami (Ohio), who will obviously be seeded better than a 12) – Drew B.
First of all, that’s a shocking statistic. I couldn’t quite believe it myself, so I went through it again and confirmed its accuracy. It’s true! We’ve seen low-ranked mid-majors like Saint Peter’s, Princeton and Oral Roberts make the Sweet 16, but they were all on the No. 15 line.
As for who can change that this year, my best guess is Stephen F. Austin, who has dethroned McNeese as the top team in the Southland. Under new coach Matt Braeuer, the Lumberjacks have built an excellent defense led by shot-swatting threat Jerald Colonel. Offensively, they have several strong perimeter shooters, and burly point guard Keon Thompson can be the best player on the court every night. But like Miami (Ohio), they haven’t played any power conference opponents.
Belmont is another candidate, if the Bruins can escape the gantlet that will be Arch Madness. Casey Alexander’s team is deadly offensively and has enough size and depth in the frontcourt to compete in the paint. Again, no one would play the Bruins in the non-conference, so they are incredibly untested against Power 5 athletes.
Tulsa and South Florida, the American’s two top contenders, have no shortage of athletes and also have the advantage to make it happen. Any of several possible Big West champions could do it (Hawaii, UC Irvine, UC Santa Barbara). However, I am not a big fan of Yale, Liberty or High Point. — Jim Root
I think it’s a good thing that Charles Bediako was declared ineligible, but there’s something that doesn’t make sense to me: Why is the “red line” for a player to be declared ineligible by the NCAA when he declares for the NBA Draft? If a player is in the draft but not chosen, why wouldn’t he be eligible to go back to college? For what it’s worth, I completely agree that it’s absurd to play in the G League (or any professional league for that matter) for years and come back. –Kirk M.
So the red line that the NCAA and President Charlie Baker have established regarding eligibility is for players to sign an NBA contract and not simply declare for the NBA Draft. The Bediako saga is notable because he was the first of this new crop of “professional” players to actually play and then return to college basketball after declaring for the draft and waiving his remaining eligibility. But that’s not why the NCAA initially deemed him ineligible, which led to Bediako taking the association to court.
Baker said in December that the NCAA had not made eligible players who had signed NBA contracts, including two-way contracts such as the one Bediako signed with the San Antonio Spurs after going undrafted. (Even though Bediako never played in an NBA game.) Previously, the NCAA granted eligibility to some former international and G League players, including James Nnaji at Baylor, who was selected in the second round of the 2023 draft. Nnaji initially never played college basketball, but the NCAA determined he was eligible because he never signed a professional NBA contract and his G League and international contracts did not exceed the collegiate eligibility threshold.
There is certainly something to be said about the rationale for that distinction. It’s part of what Bediako and his lawyers argued in court. The differences in age, background, contracts, playing time and money earned at different levels of professional basketball have created shades of gray across the spectrum of these eligibility cases, but the NCAA has decided that an NBA contract is the line that should not be crossed.
This means we could potentially see an example of a former college player, similar to Bediako, who has declared for the NBA Draft and perhaps even been selected, and is allowed to return to college hoops (without suing the NCAA) as long as he never made an NBA deal (as determined by the NCAA). The reason for that justification appears to be that the NCAA does not want players who have appeared in NBA games, such as Amari Bailey, to play in college basketball. It’s a slippery slope the NCAA doesn’t want to tread, even though some think it’s an arbitrary distinction.
In Bediako’s case, the NCAA held firm and ultimately won in court. We’ll see if others try to test that line – and if anyone breaks through. — Justin Williams
Arizona just lost. What is the formula for a team to finish the regular season undefeated in a power conference? I think it’s a good team that gives back a ton and then adds an all-time freshman, and it would help if that team were in the Big East, where there is a clear bottom of the conference and half the teams play in NBA or NHL arenas, which reduces home field advantage. – Dan K.
I also doubt it ever happens, Dan, but for another reason: the spread of talent.
The No. 1 recruit in the class of 2025 plays at BYU. Nebraska, which has never won an NCAA Tournament game, is in the top 10 because of a roster built through smart acquisitions in the transfer portal. The days of teams stacking five stars on the bench — a la Kentucky in 2015, the last major team to go undefeated in the regular season — are over, in no small part because of the transfer portal and the money available in the college hoops landscape. The fact that Arizona has survived this long – 23 games – is incredible, and a testament to the team Tommy Lloyd built… but did anyone really think the Wildcats would get through Kansas, Texas Tech, BYU, Houston and Iowa State unscathed? There’s just too much talent in the sport and too many resources available everywhere for teams to hoard the kind of elite depth needed to do what Kentucky did in 2015. Brendan Marks
Unless Houston wins and wins the Big 12, it seems likely that whoever gets the fourth 1-seed will end up in the South Region in Houston. What happens in that scenario if Houston finishes in the top 2 of the bracket? Does the committee move them to another region so as not to disadvantage the 1-seed by giving them a potential true road game in the Elite Eight, or does the S-curve take precedence and the 1-seed should just deal with it? –Greg S.
You nailed it with your last sentence, Greg. The S-Curve is a priority, and the committee “does not assume profit,” for lack of a better term. Houston is actually a perfect example of this: Last year, the No. 1 seed Cougars had to play a quasi-road game against No. 4 seed Purdue in Indianapolis in the Sweet 16. The Cougars certainly wouldn’t mind flipping the script and getting the chance to play in front of a partisan crowd this year.
The NCAA’s bracketing principles dictate that teams in the top four seeds are protected from playing “with a potential disadvantage to the home crowd” only in the first round. Maybe Houston will win enough to earn that final No. 1 seed, but if not, the Cougars could end up with a theoretical home-court advantage in the Elite Eight.
One other note: There was another question in the mailbag about Saint Louis University potentially being placed in the St. Louis pod for the opening round. That might be okay, since the Billikens aren’t the official host of the Enterprise Center (it’s actually the Missouri Valley Conference). Furthermore, the Billikens did not play three or more games at that specific location this season – another strange quirk that would rule out the possibility of them playing there. — Root
What do you think of Darius Acuff Jr.? from Arkansas, who averages the same scoring stats (and better passing stats) as UNC’s Caleb Wilson and isn’t that far behind the likes of Dybantsa, Cameron Boozer and Darryn Peterson? Why aren’t his draft projections in the top 10 or higher like theirs, and where is his hype/bloom? – Asher A.
Acuff has undoubtedly had a stellar freshman season, leading the Razorbacks in scoring (20.5 points per game) and assists (6.3) while keeping Arkansas firmly in the regular-season SEC race. He is John Calipari’s newest stallion and will be selected in the first round this summer.
But when you’re projecting for the NBA, counting stats aren’t the only thing that matter. Production is important, of course, and Acuff checks that box, but you also have to dig a little deeper. Is this player’s role the same as at the next level? How does this player compare physically to future NBA counterparts? And how versatile is he, if his best qualities only translate to a certain extent?
This is where the four names you mentioned separate. How many 6-foot-4, ball-dominant point guards do you see dominating the NBA these days? Not much, especially in an era where height and length matter a lot. Acuff is a gifted passer and ranks ninth among majors in assists, but his calling card in college is scoring. But against the best opponents Arkansas has faced, Acuff’s point totals have come at the expense of his efficiency. See the difference:
- Acuff season-long splits: 49 percent on field goals, 41.2 percent from three points and an assist-to-turnover ratio of 3.15.
- Acuff in 12 games against “Tier A” KenPom opponents: 44.4 percent on field goals, 31.1 percent from 3, and an assist-to-turnover ratio of 2.47.
Arkansas is just 6-6 in those games, with Acuff attempting a whopping 16.3 shots per game.
While Acuff is an extremely talented natural scorer, it would go against the grain for an NBA team to allow him – especially at that level of inefficiency – to be that ball dominant, especially with his size. Otherwise, Acuff’s defense was fine, but nothing to write home about. (He has a positive wingspan, closer to 6-6, but doesn’t always use it to be disruptive.) And finally, this freshman class is a jack-of-all-trades. Stems are abundant everywhere. There are 12 freshmen who average at least 17 points per game, so while Acuff’s numbers put him in the mix, they obviously don’t anoint him above any of the other great guards – like Peterson, Kingston Flemings or Mikel Brown Jr. – in this class. — To notice
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