Murakami’s time on the market has been unusually quiet for a player of his stature. These interesting reports from Chicago and Boston are the first major reports linking Murakami to one of the thirty MLB teams, as his representation has apparently been playing things very close to the vest regarding his market. The 25-year-old has certainly attracted interest from other clubs, which of course has simply gone unreported, but Murakami’s market does not appear to be as strong as expected, even considering that reality.
Geoff Pontes of Baseball America suggested in an appearance at Foul Territory last week that there is a slugger market “softer” than he and his representation expected going into the offseason. MLBTR ranked Murakami as the #4 free agent on the market this winter and projected an eight-year, $180 million contract for the young slugger as part of our Top 50 MLB Free Agents list. That ranking explains the power of Murakami and the extreme youth moving towards free agency; Yoshinobu Yamamoto was only six months younger than Murakami when he received a $325 million contract from the Dodgers, while the fact that Juan Soto heading into his age-26 season was a key factor in landing a record-breaking $765 million deal last winter.
That said, Murakami’s low contact rates since his post have raised eyebrows around the baseball world, and it’s not hard to see why. Eno Sarris of athletics illustrated concerns about Murakami’s lack of contact in the NPB by sharing a list of players with similar contact rates and exit velocities in the majors in recent years. The resulting group contains some stars such as Nick Kurtz (And Shohei Ohtani if the parameters are adjusted a little more favorably for Murakami), but it covers a much larger group of mediocre players, ranging from decent regulars like Matt Wallner to early career flame-outs Aristides Aquinas. Of course, there are certainly reasons to believe that Murakami will be a lot better than those players; his raw production in NPB is nothing short of otherworldly. Still, the risk in the young slugger’s profile is real, and it’s not necessarily a shock that teams will shy away from giving him a huge contract until and unless he can prove his playing style works at the big league level.
As for the clubs with reported interest in Murakami, the White Sox are a very interesting fit. The slugger is certainly young enough to be part of the next competitive team on the South Side; he is only two years older than star rookies Colson Montgomery And Kyle Teel. That makes him an intriguing prospect for the Sox, especially if he signs a long-term contract with the club. Miguel Vargas And Sosa Island are currently the club’s projected starters at the infield corners, but neither player is locked in strongly enough to prevent the addition of Murakami.
A short-term agreement could also be possible; the White Sox signed Erik Fedde signed a two-year deal two winters ago and had a strong first half to secure a three-way trade with Fedde, bringing back Vargas. A similar approach could be applied here too, at least in theory. Chicago could be a particularly attractive destination for the young slugger given their lack of competitive expectations this year; it could give him a chance to make necessary adjustments at the big league level without the pressure of a pennant race, and perhaps the White Sox would feel more comfortable than most clubs trying Murakami at third base despite widespread concerns about his ability at that position.
As for the Red Sox, Murakami could provide the kind of elite slugger the Red Sox lost when they traded Rafael Devers during the summer. This makes the connection between the parties plausible, but there are certainly also questions and obstacles. First, the Red Sox are entering a clear win-now window after making the playoffs last year, and may not be willing to play Murakami during the difficulties his adjustment to the majors could bring. On the other hand, the Red Sox are already extremely left-handed and have done so Triston Casas in-house as a first base/DH option with many advantages in itself. Boston would have to be confident that Murakami would be a substantial upgrade over Casas to commit significant dollars to him for the same role.
While a Murakami chase from Boston cannot be ruled out, Cotillo’s quote about Boston remains “kicking the tires” on the slugger suggests a more reserved approach to its market. That’s an understandable path, especially considering Okamoto could be a better fit. Okamoto is older than Murakami and lacks the elite power of his compatriot, but he has had a much more stable career in the NPB without concerns about contact rates, offers more playable defensive skills at third base and is a right-handed hitter who complements the Red Sox lineup more effectively. That solid fit is part of the reason the Red Sox have been linked to Okamoto on and off all winter, even as they pursue a reunion with the third baseman. Alex Bregman.
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