Suárez was always going to be limited to two or three years due to his age. Gallen is coming off a bad season and is a candidate for a cushion contract with an opt-out. On the other hand, Valdez came into the winter as perhaps the best pitcher available. His age and mediocre performance in the second half, plus the bizarre crossing incident with the catcher Cesar Salazar that could lead to some questions from teams – meant he came into the market with a bit of a negative tone himself. Nevertheless, Valdez is coming off a 3.66 ERA, with an above-average strikeout rate of 23.3% and a massive 58.6% grounder rate over 192 innings. It is his fourth straight full season and sixth straight year with a sub-4.00 grade point average.
Valdez’s age (32) made a six-year contract difficult. A five-year contract seemed more plausible, with a strong four-year pact appearing to form the basis. There hasn’t been much talk about Valdez’s market or whether his camp would focus on a shorter deal with opt-outs as Spring Training approaches. Valdez clearly hasn’t found a deal he likes yet, but he’s likely the last top starter to change teams this season.
A Pull Skubal trading has always felt like a gamble. Freddy Peralta, MacKenzie Gore, Edward Cabrera And Shane Baz are outside the trading market. Dylan stops landed with the Blue Jays on a seven-year deal in the first few weeks of the offseason. The market did not value NPB correctly Tatsuya Imai like a top-of-the-rotation arm. Valdez has a bigger upside than all the other remaining starters in free agency (e.g. Gallen, Luke Giolito, Chris Bassitt, Justin Verlander).
Valdez has most often been linked to the Orioles. They entered the offseason in need of a top starter, and president of baseball operations Mike Elias has had ties to the southpaw since his days in Houston’s front office. The O’s acquired and signed Baz in a trade to address the rotation Pete Alonso to a five-year, $155 million free agent deal. There is reportedly still room in the budget, but another annual salary of over $30 million for Valdez would mean a much bigger offseason than usual for the Orioles.
The Mets, Blue Jays and Red Sox are known to have met with Valdez during the Winter Meetings. They each added another great pitcher (Peralta, Cease and Ranger Suarezrespectively). The Astros never seemed inclined to bring Valdez back. The Giants also met with the two-time All-Star, but they have consistently downplayed their desire to sign anyone long-term.
Where is Valdez? Will Baltimore or San Francisco get aggressive, or does the long wait offer the opportunity for a mystery team?
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