Which bull market? Bitcoin closes in the red for four consecutive months

The last time BTC was this deeply in the red on a monthly basis was during the 2018 bear market.

In that not-so-distant past, the cryptocurrency was trading confidently within a six-figure price range, having just pushed a new all-time high above $126,000. The community was full of new predictions of around $150,000 or $200,000 by the end of the year, based on historical performance.

The monthly closures in red

However, the reality was different. And brutal. Instead of going to those levels, BTC fell on October 10/11 in a $19 billion drop in value, and the trend got worse as the cryptocurrency was never really able to recover from that crash. In fact, Bitcoin ended 2025 in the red for the first time in a year after the halving.

2026 started with more hopes for a recovery and a renewed run, but these were halted mid-month when BTC was stopped at $95,000 and driven hard south. It was initially pushed below $90,000, but that was just the beginning as the losses kept coming.

It fell to $81,000 last week and bounced back to $84,000, but was rejected on Saturday. In the space of just a few hours, Bitcoin’s disaster worsened, dropping to around $75,000, leaving billions in liquidations. This meant it had lost $20,000 in less than two weeks.

Data from CoinGlass shows that bitcoin closed January with a loss of 10.17%, even as it recovered somewhat from that low. This made it the fourth month in a row that ended in the red and the worst since November.

Which bull market?

Most crypto analysts have been divided since October on whether the ongoing market phase is actually a bull market. But the data above clearly shows that BTC’s behavior is more in line with how it performs during bear cycles. The last time it was in the red for four or more consecutive months was in late 2018 and early 2019.

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At the time, BTC hit new lows again and again, before finally bottoming out in January after its sixth straight month in the red. If history repeats itself now, the cryptocurrency has more room for losses before it finally makes a notable recovery like it did seven years ago.

Nevertheless, the light at the end of the tunnel shows that Bitcoin may be in for a more favorable Q2 and Q3 if we trust history. If we don’t, good news could come as soon as February, as most analysts agree that the four-year cycle has been broken and BTC is now operating in a different way.