James M. Dorsey discusses TRT World what happens afterwards when Hamas and Israel negotiate the implementation of the 20-point plan of the US President Donald Trump to end the Gaza War.
Go to the interview https://jamesmdorsey.substack.com/p/where-does-gaza–rom-her
[Neill Harvey] Okay, let’s look at the international reaction that has been declared in the Hamas statement. UN -Chef António Guterres said he is being encouraged by Hamas who announces that it is ready to release hostages. Qatar, which acts as a mediator between Hamas and Israel, said that it is welcoming development and works to resume conversations to implement a ceasefiring.
Egypt, another mediator, expressed his hope that the positive development will lead all parties to end the war. The British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said that the acceptance of Hamas of Trump’s plan is an important step and he called on all parties to implement it without delay. Let us bring James M. Dorsey, Midden -East Analyst and Senior Fellow to the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.
Welcome, James. I mean, this all sounds very positive, but I try to understand how this differs from the last time that Hamas and Israel agree on a cease -the fire?
I mean, is it the fact that this time all hostages are transferred in advance? And if so, why would Hamas make that concession because it is their only leverage?
[James M. Dorsey] Neil, it’s good to be with you. And those are all legitimate questions. I think this is important that this is the first time you have the United States, the Trump government, Donald Trump itself, and makes serious demands on Israel.
In other words, stop the bombing now. That said, there is no agreement on the details about how this will work. Both Trump, certainly Trump, but also Netanyahu, have emphasized the release of the hostages.
And that is what Hamas has agreed. But it has not changed its conditions for the release of the hostages. In other words, a permanent end of the war, a complete and complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and the free stream of humanitarian aid in the comic.
These are the details that must be negotiated. And those are the details that the dealbreaker can become. What you may see is a situation in which Hamas releases hostages, perhaps not all hostages, and Trump and Netanyahu explain the victory and go back.
And in fact Trump does not follow his bet or on his requirement that Israel will stop the bomb attacks. And you see the Israelis who restart the Gaza bomb attacks without the American repercussions. So I think there are more questions than answers at the moment.
[Neill Harvey] I mean, the scenario that you just explained there, James, that’s exactly where we were. In the first -the Fire, when some of the hostages were released, there would be phase two negotiations for more of it. And it just wasn’t enough for Israel.
They withdrew one -sided. And I have trouble understanding how we are taking a different path here. It is celebrated in a different way.
But as you said, all the important sticky points, none of them has been resolved.
[James M. Dorsey] I think the big difference here is that in the cessation -the January, the one we are talking about, who lasted until March when the Israelis left the agreement in principle. At that time we were talking about a temporary cease -the fires, no permanent stopping -the fire. And we were talking about a staged or phased release of hostages.
This time we are talking about the war. And we are talking about a full one -time release of all hostages. And of course you have much more support and approval, at least nominal, by the international community.
[Neill Harvey] Is that an important problem, James? Because another guest suggested that this time, if Israel were to run away from a deal that this time corresponds to both parties, it will have much more to lose, because other countries have already said that they will stop trading with Israel, they will not provide them with weapons. Are there much greater commitment to Netanyahu?
[James M. Dorsey] Yes and no. I think the larger bet is not so much the threat of further insulation. In a sense, we had Netanyahu who approached that issue a few weeks ago by saying that Israel had to become Super Sparta.
It had to go on the way to an autarkic economy and self -supply. How realistic that can be, being next to the point at the moment. So, what I think is much more the real question, how serious is Trump?
Will Trump follow this? Is he prepared, if Israel decides that this is not a deal that can accept it, will he attach the consequences to this? For example, a partial, if not a complete arms embargo, reduced political support for Israel in the United Nations, for example.
I think that is where the real question lies, given the fact, especially that it was always the United States that would become the most important and decisive player in this.
[Neill Harvey] James, good to get you about this. Appreciate it. James Dorsey, analyst in the middle, my guest.
[James M. Dorsey] Always my pleasure. Thank you, Neil.
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