IU basketball is back on the road for a primetime game Friday against Purdue at Mackey Arena. The Hoosiers are coming off a 71-51 loss at Illinois on Sunday, while the Boilermakers fell to Michigan 91-80 on Tuesday in West Lafayette.
Friday’s game is scheduled for an 8:00 PM ET tipoff on FOX:
With five regular season games remaining, IU basketball has work to do to return to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2023.
The Hoosiers, currently 17-9 and 8-7 in the Big Ten, likely need 20 regular-season wins to feel good about their chances of an at-large selection for next month’s tournament. Just under 20 wins could leave Indiana in need of Big Ten tournament victories or sweating out the Selection Show on Sunday, March 15.
Of the five remaining games, Friday’s tilt in West Lafayette is the toughest on paper. KenPom has Indiana as the favorite in the upcoming games against Northwestern and Minnesota in Bloomington and as an underdog against Purdue (by 11), Michigan State (by 2) and Ohio State (by 3).
The good news for the Hoosiers is that they have already proven that they can beat Purdue. Indiana defeated the Boilermakers 72-67 in Bloomington on Jan. 27 for its best win of the season so far. An upset on Friday would go a long way toward securing a bid for March Madness.
THE FIRST MATCH
Instead of diving into Purdue’s personnel, we’ll take a look at the first game leading up to the rematch of the first of IU’s three Big Ten doubleheaders.
The win against the Boilermakers in late January, Indiana’s fifth Big Ten win this season, was driven by Nick Dorn’s scoring, a strong effort on the glass and in the paint, Conor Enright’s point guard play and relatively strong three-point shooting.
Dorn’s performance was notable in the first matchup, as he scored 18 points and earned KenPom Game MVP honors in just his second start of the season. The 6-foot-1 junior went 4-for-9 on 3s to go along with three steals and two rebounds in 32 minutes.
In the paint, Purdue outscored Indiana 24-18 and had only an 11-to-10 edge in second-chance points. Given the size of the Boilermaker frontcourt with Trey Kaufman-Renn, Oscar Cluff and Daniel Jacobsen, Purdue’s inability to capitalize in the paint and on the boards was a major storyline.
Enright logged all 40 minutes of the first meeting between the two rivals and remarkably made no mistake in the win for the Hoosiers. The senior point guard had eight assists and his 3-pointer from the left wing with 1:12 to play extended IU’s lead to two possessions. He also connected on a pair of free throws with less than 25 seconds left to seal the win.
Indiana’s three-point shooting was also a major factor in the late January game. The Hoosiers shot 8-for-20 on 3s in the first half, helping build an 11-point halftime lead. Indiana went 12-for-33 on 3s for the game, and Purdue went 7-for-20, giving the Hoosiers a 15-point lead in points from behind the arc.
PACE-FREE PREVIEW
All statistics in the graph are for conference games only and are updated through Tuesday’s games.
Purdue played some of its best basketball of the season in Tuesday’s game against Michigan, but the Wolverines overpowered the Boilermakers in a 91-80 win at Mackey Arena.
It wasn’t that Purdue didn’t play well in the loss, but the Wolverines are better and the current favorite to win the national championship. Expect the Boilermakers to shake off the loss and quickly regain their focus for Friday’s rematch.
Offensively, few teams operate as efficiently as the Boilermakers. In Big Ten play, Purdue boasts the third-best offense in the Big Ten. The Boilermakers are averaging 1,204 points per trip in league play, shooting 35.7 percent from 3-point range and 57.1 percent from 2-point range. They also do excellent in ball care with a turnover percentage of 12.5, the second best figure in the conference.
Defensively, Purdue is elite on the defensive glass, defends well without making mistakes and is solid at forcing turnovers. Purdue’s rim protection isn’t great, as Big Ten opponents shoot 54.6 percent on 2s. Just like in the first game, Indiana will need strong perimeter shooting on Friday to have a chance at victory. Big Ten foes are shooting 35.7 percent on triples against Purdue through 15 regular-season games.
THE BOTTOM LINE
The KenPom projection has Purdue at 11 percent, with just a 17 percent chance of an IU win, and Bart Torvik favors Purdue at 10 percent, with an 18 percent chance of an IU upset. Indiana hasn’t won at Mackey Arena since 2023, when Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer were freshmen in Purdue’s starting backcourt.
Indiana can expect to play in the toughest road environment of the season on Friday night. Mackey Arena offers an elite home field advantage and the student section will be in top form for the rivalry match.
The Hoosiers face an uphill battle to pull off an upset in this game and while a loss won’t hurt Indiana’s resume, it will put even more pressure on the final four games of the regular season.
See more: Commentary, Purdue Boilermakers
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