IU basketball begins a crucial three-game homestand Tuesday night. The Hoosiers host Northwestern, which is 11-16 overall and 3-13 in Big Ten play.
Tuesday’s game is scheduled for a 7:00 PM ET tip-off on FS1:
After back-to-back home wins against Wisconsin and Oregon, Indiana went on the road last week and lost to Illinois and Purdue by a combined 49 points.
The Hoosiers are clinging to an NCAA tournament spot, but need a strong finish to the regular season to punch their ticket to March Madness. With three of the last four games at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall, Indiana will likely need to win 2-2 to at least stay in the bubble. Just a 3-1 mark or better to end the regular season will leave the Hoosiers feeling strong about their tournament chances.
First up: a matchup with Northwestern, which has dominated Indiana in recent seasons. The Wildcats have won the last five meetings in the series, including two in a row in Bloomington.
MEET THE WILDCATS
Chris Collins, in his 13th season at the helm in Evanston, is on pace to finish with his first losing season since the 2021-22 season.
The 51-year-old has amassed 204 wins during his time at Northwestern and has led the program to three NCAA tournament appearances.
But after a 17-16 record last season following the graduation of Boo Buie, this winter has been tough for the Wildcats following the graduation of Brooks Barnhizer and Ty Berry.
A rebuilt Northwestern roster is led by Nick Martinelli, one of the Big Ten’s most consistent scorers. However, the rest of the roster was inconsistent.
The 6-foot-1, 225-pound Martinelli is a smart lefty who can score from anywhere. Martinelli is averaging 22.3 points, 6.2 rebounds and 1.7 assists in 34.9 minutes per game. He is shooting 50.1 percent from the field, 43.5 percent on 3s and 80.9 percent from the free throw line.
He is the only senior in the rotation and in recent games the Wildcats have gone just eight players deep.
Junior point guard Jayden Reid, a transfer from South Florida, has started 21 of the team’s 27 games and is averaging 10.1 points and a team-best 4.9 assists in 24.7 minutes per game. Reid is shooting just 38.7 percent from the field and 31.2 percent on 3s. However, he is capable from the perimeter with a career three-point shooting percentage of 37.6.
(Shot chart via UMHoops.com)
Reid is joined in the starting backcourt by freshman guard Jake West, a 6-foot-4 native of Philadelphia. West has started its last 11 games and is shooting 38.5 percent on 3s in conference games. He is averaging 4.2 points in 19.5 minutes per game this season, but recently scored 18 points in 35 minutes in a road loss at Iowa.
The guards and wing backups are currently sophomore Angel Ciarovino and junior Jordan Clayton. The 6-foot-4 Ciarovino has started 14 of the 26 games he has played in and is shooting 61.4 percent on 2s this season but just 25 percent from distance. The 6-foot-2 Clayton has made 10 starts and is shooting 37.7 percent on 3s this season and connecting on 40.9 percent on 3s in league play.
The Wildcats are currently starting a pair of freshmen at forward. Tre Singleton, a Jeffersonville native, starts at the four with Tyler Kropp, a 6-foot-4 native of Powell, Ohio, at the five.
Singleton led Jeff to a Class 4A state championship last spring and was productive at the highest level in his first season. He struggled from the perimeter, shooting just 8-for-48 on 3s, but shooting 60.2 percent on 2s and averaging 7.9 points and 4.8 rebounds in 24.9 minutes per game.
Kropp was inserted into the starting lineup starting with the USC game on Jan. 21 and is averaging 3.1 points and 2.1 rebounds in 11.7 minutes per game.
The most productive player in Northwestern’s frontcourt this season is Cincinnati transfer Arrinten Page, who has made 14 starts and is the team’s second-leading scorer at 10.4 points per game. The 6-foot-4 Page, who started his career at USC, is shooting 55.1 percent from the field and is third on the team in rebounding at 4.5 percent per game. He has the seventh-best block percentage in the Big Ten. But his minutes have decreased since his last start against Nebraska on Jan. 17. Over his last ten games, Page is logging just 15 minutes per game.
PACE-FREE PREVIEW
All statistics in the graph are for conference games only and will be updated through Sunday.
Northwestern ranks in the bottom four of the Big Ten in offensive and defensive efficiency, which is no surprise given its 3-13 mark in conference play.
Offensively, the Wildcats are shooting just 31.7 percent on 3s and 48.7 percent on 2s. This is a low-volume 3-point shooting team that scores 28.1 percent of its points from 3s in league play. Indiana, by comparison, scores 39.1 percent of its points on 3s, which is fifth in the league. Northwestern ranks just 16th in free throw percentage (FTA/FGA) and 15th in offensive rebound percentage.
Defensively, Northwestern is the worst defensive team in the league and ranks 15th in opponent free throw percentage. Given these facts, Indiana cannot afford to lose Tuesday’s rebound or free throw battle. Expect the Wildcats to try to slow the game down and force IU into isolation situations offensively.
THE BOTTOM LINE
The KenPom projection is Indiana by eight points, with a 76 percent chance of a Hoosier win, and Bart Torvik projects a 10-point IU win with an 82 percent chance of winning.
The obvious key at Northwestern is to make Martinelli work for every point he scores. He’ll get a ton of shots and has plenty of 20-point games in the league. But keeping him off the foul line and forcing contested 2s is key for the IU defense.
Indiana shot the lights out in its last home game against Oregon and the Hoosiers are at their best when the ball hits the paint and moves along the perimeter for a rhythmic look. Northwestern will try to slow the game down, make it ugly and hope to play spoiler as IU looks for a win it desperately needs to make the NCAA Tournament.
See more: Commentary, Northwestern Wildcats
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