The starting pitching dominoes are finally starting to fall. After Michael King returned to the Padres last night, the Orioles made a big move that sparked the trade market for starting pitchers. They traded for Shane Baz from the Rays in a deal that sent five pieces to Tampa, including highly touted outfielder Slater De Brun.
The Baz trade tells us a lot about the MacKenzie Gore market as they are quite similar. Both Baz and Gore are former great players who have shown great success in the MLB, but haven’t put it all together yet. Gore was the better and healthier pitcher of the two, post a lower ERA while almost pitching double the innings.
Last season, Baz posted a 4.87 ERA in 166.1 innings. It was also the first time he threw 100 innings in an MLB season. With that in mind, why would the O’s be willing to give up so much to get him? Well, Baz still has a very high ceiling and can be mean when he’s playing. His fastball averages 97 MPH and he struck out almost 25% of the batters he faced.
At just 26 years old, Baz still has the opportunity to become a number two starter. Gore and Baz have a similar ceiling, but Gore has proven more. However, Baz has an extra year of team control compared to Gore, which adds value. Overall, I would expect Gore to have more value, but not by much.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at what the Rays actually got back. With five pieces in the deal it was definitely a quantity over quality deal. None of the guys they recovered are in the top 100, but a few have an edge in the top 100.
Slater De Brun is probably the biggest piece in the deal. While he was picked 37th overall, he signed a overlock deal that paid him $4 million. De Brun is a speedy outfielder who has good leadoff hitter skills. He’s not the biggest, but he also has decent power.
Caden Bodine is another big name in the pack. He was the thirtieth pick in the draft, but was not paid as much as De Brun. Bodine is an appealing prospect with elite contact skills and framing ability. There are questions about his strength and overall athleticism, but he is a safe prospect.
The third candidate in the deal is pitcher Michael Forret. He had a great season in High-A and Double-A, post an ERA of 1.58, while striking out 91 batters in 74 innings. Forret has a deep pitch mix and a mid-90s fastball. If he keeps rolling, he could end up in the top 100.
The Rays also got Austin Overn and a competitive balance pick. Overall, this is a strong return and should set the stage for a MacKenzie Gore trade. I’d like to see Paul Toboni get a real headliner instead of taking this quantity approach first. However, we now know what the starting pitching market looks like.
With all of this movement picking up steam and a GM now placed under Toboni, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Gore trade in the coming days. It’s something that should happen. Gore is a good pitcher with a lot of upside, but he only has two years of control and is not an ace.
If the Nats can cash in on Gore, not only would it help them in the long run, I think it could help them as early as 2027 if they get the deal right. Given the market, it would be a bit of a disappointment if they held on to Gore. Hopefully Toboni has something up his sleeve here now that the dominoes are really starting to fall.
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