November 16, 2025
After a short correction last month, the gold price seems to be on an upward trend again.
The rise in the price of the yellow metal before the small pullback was truly extraordinary.
Even a few years ago, people would have been skeptical that gold prices would remain comfortably above Rs 100,000 per 10 grams.
In fact, people would probably have predicted a correction if the yellow metal reached six figures.
Not only did no correction occur for a very long time, even the small decline that occurred in mid-October 2025 did not last long.
The gold price is getting closer to its all-time high. The gold bulls certainly have the price under control at the moment.
Just look at the graph of the gold price over the past three years….
An incredible increase
In 2024, gold returned 20% compared to the Nifty’s 8.7% gain.
And in 2025, the upward momentum continued. From around Rs 78,000 to Rs 133,000, gold price per 10 grams rose by around 70% till mid-October.
In fact, since August 2024, the gold price has risen from around 70,000 levels. That was an increase of more than 90% in just over 14 months.
If we go back a little further, the price has risen sharply from 64,000 levels since February 2024. That was a staggering 108% gain in 20 months.
But about the future?
Gold Price Outlook for 2026
Can gold keep rising?
The short answer is: yes, you can. The upward momentum in the price remains strong.
But can price momentum sustain into 2026 and beyond?
All kinds of predictions and predictions have been made about the gold price by many so-called ‘experts’. In our editorials we avoid predictions.
But we will say this: The future price of gold will depend on the sustainability of the underlying factors driving the price up now.
What are these factors?
There are three main ones we can identify…
#1 Consequences of US trade policy
Gold has always been a safe haven. People flock to gold when times are tough or when there is uncertainty in the financial markets.
Uncertainty has increased as a result of US President Donald Trump’s tariff policy. The second- and third-order effects of this Trump tariff policy will only be known over the years.
And this is causing some concern in the financial markets.
There is also inflation to consider. Trump’s policies have had the effect of increasing inflation in the US, at least in the short term. For the time being, inflation in the US has not risen too sharply. But this will remain a concern as long as the tariffs remain in place.
Throughout history, gold has always been an effective hedge against inflation.
There are also concerns that the US economy is heading for a recession by 2026. The recent US government shutdown has only exacerbated these concerns.
Gold usually does well when there is fear of a recession.
#2 Geopolitics
The Middle East has proven to be a hot potato for the financial markets. The last thing the financial markets want is another war in this region.
While a proposed peace deal appears to be in progress, it remains to be seen how this will all play out. If hostilities resume, gold will rise sharply.
Gold has always been seen as a means of preserving wealth during times of political unrest. During such times throughout history, people have chosen to hold their wealth in physical gold rather than any other asset. This will not change in the near future.
It’s safe to say that after the events of the past two years, the gold market is keeping a close eye on events in the Middle East.
#3 Greed and fear
And then there’s the good old speculation.
Sometimes the price of an asset goes up just because it is rising.
Buy that, we mean people buy because they think the price will increase as a result of others buying. They just want to come along for the ride.
In financial terms, this is called surfing the price momentum. The ‘extra’ purchases from these short-term traders contribute to the upward price momentum.
There is also FOMO (fear of missing out) at play here.
Fear can cause asset prices to move in both directions. It causes people to sell when prices start to fall, but it can also cause people to buy.
This is because traders feel like they are missing out on easy short-term profits. The thinking goes “If others make money easily, why shouldn’t I?”
If you are tempted to buy gold now, you should be aware that speculation is unreliable. You can’t rely on speculators to claim the price so you can ride the wave and make an easy profit.
That’s not how financial markets work. If that were possible, every trader would be rich. That is not the case.
Conclusion
Despite the recent short-term decline in gold prices, which has been accompanied by a lot of volatility, momentum in the gold market still exists.
However, investors and traders should not get carried away. When the whole market is talking about a rising gold price, it’s easy to forget that the opposite can also happen.
This is what happened last month, October 2025. Many leveraged traders burned their fingers.
The bulls may have the upper hand, but investors should pay careful attention to possible changes in the underlying factors driving gold higher. If the changes are significant enough, the price of gold will fall.
At Equitymaster we believe we should have 5-10% of our portfolio in gold at all times. But investors should not view gold as a potential substitute for other assets. It makes sense to hold certain precious metals in your long-term portfolio, but there is no point in speculating on short-term price movements.
When considering an investment in gold, you should have a time horizon that extends well beyond 2025 or 2026. Just because prices have risen recently doesn’t necessarily mean gold is a great short-term investment.
Do your due diligence before making any financial investment.
Have fun investing.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only. It is not a stock recommendation and should not be treated as such. Read more about our referral services here…
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