About 53 percent of World Economic Forum chief economists surveyed expect global economic conditions to weaken in the coming year, down from 72 percent in September 2025, even as they acknowledge the relative resilience of the global economy amid turbulence. The global economic outlook has improved modestly but remains uncertain, with asset valuations, mounting debt, geo-economic realignment and the rapid deployment of artificial intelligence creating both opportunities and risks, according to the World Economic Forum’s latest Chief Economists’ Outlook, published on January 16. While 53 percent of chief economists expect global economic conditions to weaken in the coming year, this represents a significant improvement from the 72 percent who held this view in September 2025.Uncertainty around technology remains high, with 52 percent expecting AI-related stocks to decline and 40 percent expecting gains. When it comes to the potential expected returns from AI, there are major differences between regions and sectors. About four in five chief economists expect productivity gains in the US and China within two years. Chief economists expect the information technology sector to be the fastest to embrace AI, with nearly three-quarters anticipating upcoming productivity gains. Financial services, supply chain, healthcare, technology and retail will follow as fast-movers, with a timeline of one to two years. In terms of growth, expectations vary by region, with economists expecting strong momentum in South Asia and East Asia and weak to moderate growth in Europe.In terms of macroeconomics, almost a third of respondents are concerned about sovereign debt crises in advanced economies and almost half in emerging economies; more than 60 percent expect governments will rely on higher inflation and tax revenues to keep high debt levels under control.“The Chief Economists’ research reveals three defining trends for 2026: rising AI investments and their implications for the global economy; debt approaching critical thresholds with unprecedented shifts in fiscal and monetary policy; and trade realignments,” said Saadia Zahidi, Managing Director of the World Economic Forum. “Governments and businesses will need to respond flexibly to an uncertain short-term environment, while continuing to build resilience and invest in the long-term foundations of growth,” Saadia Zahidi added.Global trade and investment are adapting to a new competitive reality. Lead economists expect tariffs between the US and China to remain largely stable, although competition in other areas could increase. About 91 percent expect U.S. technology export restrictions to China to persist or increase; 84 percent expect the same for China’s restrictions on crucial minerals.In this new context, 94 percent of chief economists expect more bilateral trade agreements and 69 percent expect growth in regional trade agreements. The 56th annual meeting of the World Economic Forum, taking place on January 19-23, 2026 in Davos-Klosters, Switzerland, will bring together leaders from business, government, international organizations, civil society and academia under the theme A Spirit of Dialogue.
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