Weekly ongoing sales
The pending home sales data provides a week-to-week perspective, although results can be affected by holidays and short-term fluctuations, such as January’s massive winter storm. We were showing year-over-year growth at the beginning of the year and that snowstorm slowed things down.
Two weeks ago we had a nice week-to-week data print. This week we are also back to year-on-year growth. In recent years, our weekly home sales data has tended to be largely positive, with mortgage rates hovering around 6%.
Weekly open sales last week for the past two years:
- 2026: 59,283
- 2025: 56,693
Mortgage purchase application details
Purchasing application data is a forward-looking data line: the growth here is driving revenue forward by about 30 to 90 days, and we saw 8% year-over-year growth in this data line last week.
What I really appreciate, however, is at least 12-14 weeks of positive weekly growth. If you can get this in addition to the annual growth, we definitely have something legit. We have shown positive year-over-year growth every week for 2026.
As you can see in the chart below, there is some seasonal flow with the weekly data.
Here’s 2026 so far:
- 2 positive results from week to week
- 3 negative prints from week to week
- 1 flat week-by-week printout
- Three weeks of double-digit year-on-year growth
- 6 weeks of positive year-over-year growth
10-year interest rate and mortgage interest rate
In the HousingWire forecast for 2026, I expected the following ranges:
- Mortgage interest between 5.75% and 6.75%
- The 10-year interest rate fluctuates between 3.80% and 4.60%
Last week we had a lot of economic data and crazy headlines, but not much movement in 10-year yields or mortgage rates.
After the Supreme Court’s big decision on rates on Friday, President Trump announced a plan to unilaterally raise global rates to 15%, but not much happened to mortgage rates or 10-year rates, even with the Supreme Court news, lower GDP numbers, and 3% inflation year over year.
Interest rates ended the week lower at 6.04% Mortgage news dailyand Polly’s mortgage rate data shows a weekend rate of 6.26%.
Mortgage spreads
Mortgage spreads remain a positive story for residential construction in 2026, reducing mortgage rate volatility, and are close to normal levels.
Historically, mortgage spreads have ranged from 1.60% to 1.80%. Last week’s spreads closed at 1.94%.
If spreads were to match the 2023 peak level, mortgage rates would be 1.20 percentage points higher, at 7.21%. Now that spreads are returning to normal, mortgage prices may remain lower for longer than in previous years. Realistically, we only have 20 to 34 basis points of improvement in spreads.
Weekly home inventory data
Housing inventory grew this week as we are close to the traditional increase we see every year during the spring selling season. The pace of inventory growth has slowed since the June 2025 stock market declines, but inventories remain at multi-year highs, keeping prices in check.
We went from 33% year-over-year growth to 9.38% last week.
- Weekly Inventory Change: (February 13 – February 20): Inventory increased from 690,547 Unpleasant 700,259
- Same week last year: (February 14 – February 21): Stock rose from 637,984 Unpleasant 640,221
New advertising data
The data on new listings, like the weekly current home sales, is showing year-over-year growth again. Since most home sellers are also buyers, this is a positive sign that both are returning to year-over-year growth.
My hope is that new listing data will be between 80,000 and 100,000 per week during the seasonal peaks, as they were between 2013 and 2019. For context, during the housing bubble crash, new home additions ranged from 250,000 to 400,000 per week for several years.
Here you will find the new advertising data for the past two years:
- 2026: 60,428
- 2025: 53,861
Price reduction percentage
Typically, around a third of homes experience price reductions before they are sold, reflecting the dynamic nature of the housing market. As mortgage rates and inventories rise together, the percentage of price reductions increases.
However, interest rates are near multi-year lows, so after a very long time we are now seeing negative year-over-year price reduction figures. This should not be a surprise as demand has picked up slightly and inventory growth has slowed.
Last week’s price reduction percentage is now 1% lower than this time last year.
Last week’s price reduction percentage:
Coming up next week: Fed speeches, bond auctions and possible market reaction to rates
We have some important economic data coming this week, but we also have some interesting storylines, with big bond auctions and a question about how the market will react to Trump’s big tariff news this weekend.
We have some speeches from the Fed this week and the PPI inflation report, along with the home price index reports. Unemployment claims data comes out every Thursday, and the data continues to look good here.
The impact of the snow initially caused higher unemployment claims, but that data line has recently dropped as the impact of the snow melts from the data pool. This promises to be another very interesting week for the housing market!
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