Week 10 NFL straight up, against the spread, and survival pool picks

For the betting folks, here are my NFL picks from Week 10. The team logos represent who I think will win the game, and don’t necessarily cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I write down a few teams I like based on the spread.

Broncos Robbers (-9): The Broncos and Patri*ts have the longest winning streaks in the NFL, at six games each. Denver has a point differential on the season of +68; the Raiders have a point differential of -78. Easy pick for the survival pool here, as we’ll see in a moment.

Falcons at Colts (-6.5): If the Falcons lose this game, they’ll go to the graveyard in our NFC hierarchy/obituary. The Colts had their first really bad game of the season, Week 9. It will be interesting to see if they can bounce back. (This will also be Sauce Gardner’s first game in Indy after the Colts made a blockbuster deal for him.)

Browns (-2.5) at Jets: The Jets made two blockbuster trades at the deadline:

1. They traded CB Sauce Gardner to the Colts for a 2026 first-round pick, a 2027 first-round pick, and WR Adonai Mitchell.
2. They traded DT Quinnen Williams to the Cowboys (lol) for a first round pick in 2027, a second round pick in 2026, and DT Mazi Smith.

That’s obviously a lot of change, but losing two of their best players will also help in their efforts to land the No. 1 overall pick.

If the season were to end today, the Jets would have the No. 3 overall pickalthough they have played one fewer game than the Titans and Saints.

Saints at Panthers (-5.5): It’s pretty incredible that the Panthers have a winning record in November with the roster they have. They have a chance of 6-4! For those of you still living in surviving pools… Do you have the stones to take them? (I don’t.)

Bills (-9.5) at Dolphins: The Bills outscored the Dolphins in 2023 and 2024, and soon in 2025.

Jaguars (-1.5) at Texans: The Texans aren’t that bad this season, despite their 3-5 record. They just haven’t been able to win close games. They have one +47 point differential at 3-5, while the Jaguars have a -8 point difference at 5-3. The Texans have also played a tougher schedule thus far in my opinion. I think they are the better team.

But CJ Stroud has a concussion and doesn’t want to play. I would love to take home points for the Texans, but I can’t make that as one of my spread picks this week.

Raven (-4) at Vikings: The Ravens feel ready to hit the road with Lamar Jackson back at quarterback, and their defense has been better in recent weeks after a putrid start to the season.

Patriots at Buccaneers (-2.5): As mentioned above, the Patri*ts are on a six-game winning streak and are among the best in the NFL. Give them credit for taking care of business, but they’ve also played the weakest schedule in the NFL, according to Unpredictable. That streak ends Week 10 in Tampa against a good Bucs team coming off a bye.

Giants at Bears (-4.5): The Bears are a “bad 5-3 team,” but the Giants are a “bad 2-7 team.” That line was Bears (-2.5) earlier this week, and I was willing to jump over that, but at 4.5 it’s not that nice.

Cardinals at Seahawks (-6.5): The Seahawks have won eight straight in this rivalry, including a game earlier this season. But the Seahawks also look like they’re a pretty good football team.

Lions (-7.5) among Commanders: The commanders are dead. Jayden Daniels’ season is most likely over and their defense sucks. Meanwhile, the Lions probably can’t wait to light up the Commanders in their building after the Commanders ended their season in the playoffs last year. Normally I don’t like to put more than 7 points, but here I make an exception.

Rams (-4.5) at 49ers: The 49ers are now without Fred Warner, Nick Bosa and rookie 11th overall pick Mykel Williams for the season. In the meantime, the Aries are extremely healthy for a week 10 game. I don’t care if Brock Purdy or Mac Jones starts. Regardless, the Rams are a much better team.

Steelers at Chargers (-3): The Steelers have lost six straight playoff games, while Justin Herbert is 0-2 in the playoffs. So I guess that makes this matchup the One And Done Bowl. I don’t like this Steelers team even a little, but they have a huge matchup advantage with their edge rushers against a Chargers offensive line that is without Rashawn Slater and now Joe Alt.

Eagles at Packers (-2.5): The Eagles should come out of the bye rested and sprightly, and they probably played their best football of the season in the two games leading up to it.

• The passing game begins to come together as the opponent’s defense remains guessing… ✔️

• Rushing attack showing signs of life… ✔️

• The internal defense line is starting to make some noise… ✔️

• Edge rusher reinforcements on the way… ✔️

Meanwhile, the Packers lost an ugly game at home to the Panthers Week 9. They will be without their best weapon in the passing game in TE Tucker Kraft, and likely without their best wide receiver, Jayden Reed. Those guys do a lot of damage in the intermediate areas of the field and after the catch in ways their other receivers don’t.

The Packers have talent and their defense has been very good so far this season. They’re dead set against the run, and then Micah Parsons has obviously given a big jolt to their pass rush. However, they’ve forced just five turnovers this season, second-worst in the NFL, and they’re playing an Eagles team that has allowed just three turnovers this season, the fewest in the NFL.

I like the Eagles’ chances of winning the turnover battle, and thus the game.

BYE: Cowboys, Chiefs, Bengals, Titans.