Jake Irvin pitched two scoreless innings in his first start of the spring. That should be good news, but the start made me more bearish on the right-hander. This is due to his speed drop. Him alone average 90.3 MPH on his 4-seam and 91.1 MPH on his sinker. This continues an ongoing trend for Irvin.
Of course, you can build some of this up during the first start of spring. However, this is a continuation of a multi-year trend. Speed should have been a focus for Irvin this season, so it’s disappointing to see him throw even slower.
When Irvin entered the league in 2023, his 4-seam average 94.5 MPH and his sinker averaged 93.9. He was still effective in 2024, but his speed dropped off a bit, especially in the second half. His 4-seamer averaged 93.9 MPH and his sinker averaged 93.3.
Last year was by far the worst year of Irvin’s career. It shouldn’t be a surprise to hear that his velocity dropped even further. His 4-seamer averaged 92.4 MPH and his sinker averaged 91.9. Irvin’s speed has dropped two ticks in recent years, and he struggled to average 90 MPH in this start.
Of course, it’s still early spring, but the alarm bells are ringing for me. We know Irvin is at his best when he can be in that 94 MPH range. Yesterday he couldn’t even touch 94.
I always go back to that dominant outing Irvin had on July 4, 2024 to see what he looks like at his best. That afternoon he went 8 scoreless against the Mets and was definitely pushing. His fastball was consistently in the 93-96 MPH range and played like a plus pitch. Now that the heating is firmly in the low 90s, it doesn’t play very well.
I was really hoping Irvin would be at 93-94 yesterday, but that didn’t happen. The hardest pitch he threw was 92.9 MPH. Hopefully that can increase as we get deeper into the spring, but I feel like it’s unrealistic to expect him to get back to 2023-2024 levels at this point. I’m not sure what happened, but that speed seems to have disappeared.
Like many Nats pitchers, Irvin seems to be moving away from his fastball. Yesterday Irvin used a mix of six pitches where you weren’t quite sure which pitch would come up. He threw the four-seamer, the curveball, the sinker, the cutter and the changeup at least 10% of the time. Being unpredictable could be a way to compensate for some of that lost speed.
However, the ceiling of a right-hander throwing 90 MPH is quite limited. There are so many annoying things in the game right now. Having such a limited speed is a real disadvantage. You can survive if you have a deep pitch mix and excellent control. However, I think Irvin’s control is good, but not great, and none of his secondary throws are dominant.
Irvin needs the speed to get back to being the solid No. 4 starter he seemed to be. If he struggles out of the gate this year, his rotation spot could be in jeopardy. Guys like Mitchell Parker, Riley Cornelio and Luis Perales will be waiting in the wings. They’ll be ready to roll if Irvin struggles.
This time last year I expressed my concerns about Irvin’s speed and was proven right. This year I am sounding the alarm bells again. It’s still early in Spring Training, so Irvin’s velocity could bounce back. However, we see a multi-year trend continuing into 2026. That’s not a good sign for the 29-year-old right-hander.
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