Australia could face conflict long before the delivery of nuclear submarines, experts say, warning the country to evolve its defense strategy.
The Australian Strategic Policy Institute says Australia must adapt to manage an “imminent period of strategic risk” before the first submarines arrive in the early 2030s.
Australia is set to buy Virginia-class submarines from the United States from early next decade, before a class of nuclear vessels is co-designed with Britain as part of an AUKUS deal.
The submarine pact has drawn fierce criticism for its multibillion-dollar price tag and questions about whether the U.S. would stick to the agreement as production timelines shift and the Trump administration questions the contracts.
In a grim report published on Wednesday, the institute expressed concern about Australia’s “deterrence gaps”, which would leave the country without sufficient firepower to counter potential adversaries such as China, Russia, Iran and North Korea.
The medium-term procurement of AUKUS submarines is not relevant to the short-term issues Australia will face in the coming years, the report warned.
“That’s because the first AUKUS submarines – American Virginia-class boats – won’t be delivered until 2032, while the purpose-built SSN-AUKUS won’t arrive until the early 2040s,” the institute said.
“We can’t actually solve the 2027 deterrence problem with a 2032 deterrent capability.”
A report warns that purchasing submarines in the medium term will not deter the threats we face in the meantime. Source: MONKEY / Colin Murty
The institute urged the Australian government to explore unconventional ways to deter adversaries from armed aggression.
These methods fall outside conventional military warfare and include tactics that work indirectly against an opponent’s vulnerabilities.
It could also involve working with regional partners to resist coercion and political interference while building domestic capacity in cybersecurity, electronic warfare and space technology.
Mike Johnson, CEO of the Australian Industry and Defense Network, says sovereignty is about security, but also about economic resilience and technological leadership. He will share his views at the National Press Club in Canberra on Wednesday.
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