Wall Street week ahead: Nvidia, software reports provide next test for AI-sensitive stock markets

Investors are turning to the financial results of artificial intelligence company Nvidia Corp in the coming week to steady the U.S. stock market, which has been roiled by AI-related concerns and is processing a Supreme Court overturn of President Donald Trump’s sweeping trade tariffs. Friday’s Supreme Court ruling striking down Trump’s tariffs initially lifted stock and Treasury yields but left investors grappling with uncertainty about what other forms of trade tariffs Trump will apply and how the U.S. government will handle lawsuits and refunds.In addition to that overhang on the markets and Nvidia’s results, Wall Street will focus on other quarterly reports on the technology sector. This includes major software companies besieged by concerns that AI will upend their businesses.

The report from semiconductor giant Nvidia, the world’s largest company by market capitalization, comes as the heavyweight tech sector and other mega-cap stocks are off to a shaky start to 2026, weighing on the major indexes that have led them higher in recent years. AI “hyperscalers” have announced plans to ramp up capital spending to build out data centers and other infrastructure, often using Nvidia’s equipment, helping the company deliver strong results, said Marta Norton, chief investment strategist at pension and wealth services firm Empower.“The expectation of outsized results for Nvidia has been a persistent theme in recent years,” Norton said. “And so it’s hard for Nvidia to surprise when everyone expects it to surprise.” The benchmark S&P 500 rose a modest 0.2% this year. But there have been significant fluctuations beneath the surface. Stocks in sectors such as software, asset management and real estate services have come under pressure over concerns they are vulnerable to AI disruption.

NVIDIA FOCUS ON PREDICTIONS, CEO COMMENTS

Nvidia shares rose more than 1,500% between the end of 2022 and the end of last year. This year, as of Thursday, the stock is up about 0.8% through 2026. Others of the “Magnificent Seven” mega-cap stocks, which have fueled the current bull market, have underperformed this year. Microsoft shares are down more than 17% through 2026, while Amazon is down 11%.

Only Nvidia stock can influence major indexes; For example, the stock has a 7.8% weighting in the S&P 500.

According to LSEG, the company is expected to post a 71% increase in earnings per share on revenues of $65.9 billion for the fourth quarter of the fiscal year. Analysts estimate it will earn an average of $7.76 per share in the coming fiscal year, an increase of 66%. But the estimates among analysts are “significant,” said Melissa Otto, head of research at S&P Global Visible Alpha. According to LSEG data, the low end calls for fiscal year earnings per share of $6.28, versus a high estimate of $9.68. “If the bulls are right, the stock probably doesn’t look too expensive,” Otto said. “If the bears are right… it’s not that cheap.” Comments on Nvidia’s quarterly conference call by CEO Jensen Huang could have broader implications for the AI ​​industry, including for hyperscalers whose shares are under pressure from concerns about a lack of return on capital expenditures.

“Jensen needs to come out and show his confidence in his own customers,” said Nick Giorgi, chief equity strategist at Alpine Macro. “The fact that Nvidia has been a cheerleader for their biggest customers so far is really what you should want as an investor in this whole ecosystem.”

SOFTWARE REPORTS, STATE OF THE UNION ALSO ON TAP

Reports from major software players Salesforce and Intuit will be more important than usual given the impact of AI in the sector. The S&P 500 software and services index is down about 20% so far this year.

“Next week is going to be pretty big for software,” said King Lip, chief strategist at BakerAvenue Wealth Management. While group sales overall appear “overblown,” Lip says, “I think there are some software names that… are going to have to find a way to adapt and innovate.”

AI infrastructure players Dell and CoreWeave are also set to post gains in the coming week. Outside of technology, results from retailers Home Depot and Lowe’s are tracking as fourth-quarter earnings season comes to a close. Investors will also evaluate President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address on Tuesday.

While the technology sector has struggled, the indexes have been supported by a market rotation into sectors such as energy, industrials and consumer staples.

“It’s kind of a mind-boggling market,” Norton said. “Everything that worked in 2025 now has a tough 2026. And what was left in 2025 will work in 2026.”