Minister of State for Communication Chandra Sekhar Pemmasani said that the government has converted “a significant part” of the contribution of Vodafone Idea into equity and there are “no discussions or proposals” for further changes. The government, which became the largest shareholder after a conversion of RS 36,950 Crore in March and previously acquired a 33% interest in 2023 against contribution worth RS 16,000 Crore, now owns around 49% of the company.
Despite those steps, the AGR liability of Vodafone Idea was about RS 75,000 crore from June, with reimbursements of RS 18,000 crore per year due to start in March 2026. Analysts warn that the path for the path is forward is gloomy.
“The position of the government with regard to no immediate AGR exemption seriously undermines VIL’s passage perspectives and creates a pedaling negative impact on several dimensions,” said Nitant Darekar, research analyst at Bonanza. “This debt burden effectively blocks traditional fundraising roads, because potential investors and lenders regard AGR -liability as a sword of Damocles that makes every new capital infusion extremely risky.”
Weak basic principles, stretched balance
Vodafone Idea reported a net loss of RS 6.608 Crore in the quarter of June, which grew larger from RS 6,432 Crore a year earlier, even when sales increased by 5% to RS 11,023 Crore. The average turnover per user improved to RS 177, an increase of 15% compared to a year ago, while the EBITDA margins expanded to 41.8% of 40%. Losses narrowing of RS 7,166 crore in the quarter of March.
Separately, in an attempt to strengthen finance, Vodafone Idea Telecom Infrastructure, a complete subsidiary, is in conversation to increase RS 50 billion through a debt sale in September, according to a Reuters report. The unit is planning to spend two years and three years of bonds on coupons of approximately 12% and 14%, with private credit funds being applied. The company had previously obtained the approval of the board of directors to increase RS 200 billion through equity or loans, and has promised to expand 5G services in 17 priority circles by September.
Darekar, however, warned that share dilution in the event of ailing valuations “is the only remaining survival option” without government intervention.
Technical graph signals caution
The stock remains fragile in the graphs. “The idea of Vodafone is currently traded on RS 6.76, moving within a falling channel and witnessing persistent sales pressure,” said Amruta Shinde, research analyst at Choice Broking. “From a technical perspective, the share acts under its 20-day, 50-day and 200-day EMAs, which is a reflection of weakness and negative sentiment.”
Shindy pointed to a possible reversal in the medium term. “The RSI is 48.61 and shows a neutral momentum, but a bullish divergence is observed on the weekly graph, which indicates the possibility of a reversal in the medium term if supported by price confirmation.” She identified support levels at RS 6.25 and RS 5.70, with immediate resistance to RS 7.62. An outbreak over RS 8 could open the road for RS 10-11, she said.
Bonanza’s Kunal Kamble is more careful. “The idea of Vodafone has had to deal with rejection of the falling trendline and continues to act under all major EMAs, which emphasizes a negative bias,” he said. “On the other hand, it can slide to the swing layer of 6.12, and if this support is broken, it can be expected further down. The stock remains weak unless it crosses decisively 8.15; until then the bias remains negative.”
What investors should watch
In the next two quarters, all eyes will be aimed at whether the Vodafone idea can attract a new capital, can retain subscribers against Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel and reconsider a policy.
Read also | Yes bank shares decrease by 20% in 1 year. Can RBIs Knik push the stock to RS 23 to SMBC Deal?
“The primary catalyst remains government policy decisions, in particular any reversal of AGR exemption after consultation with the PMO, the cabinet and the financial ministry,” said Darekar. “The AGR payment theadline of March 2026 has a close stop at decision-making, making the next two quarters may be crucial for the existence of the company.”
((Indemnification: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions of the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of economic times)
#Vodafone #Idea #shares #year #Negotiation #negotiation #priority