Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, sees a favorable chart structure for the Nifty and notes that the index has broken above its previous swing high, reinforcing the positive trend bias. “The bullish crossover of the 20-day and 50-day EMAs further strengthens the upside structure. Moreover, the daily RSI has broken out of its previous consolidation phase, signaling a momentum recovery,” De said.The trend is expected to remain firm in the near term, he added, recommending a buy-on-dips strategy as long as the index remains above 26,000. On the upside, a decisive move above 26,350 could open the door for a rally towards 26,600 in the near term.
1) Geopolitics
Global stock markets are likely to react to new geopolitical unrest that occurred this weekend. On Saturday, the United States carried out airstrikes on multiple targets across Venezuela, following months of escalating military and economic pressure. US officials claimed the operation resulted in the ouster of President Nicolás Maduro, although the situation on the ground remains fluid and details are still emerging.
The developments have increased uncertainty, with investors closely watching for further confirmation, possible retaliation and the broader impact on global risk sentiment, energy markets and emerging market assets.
2. Crude oil
The attack on Venezuela could have a sentiment-driven impact on global oil markets when trading resumes on Monday. The country has some of the largest proven oil reserves in the world, raising concerns that any escalation of military action could disrupt supply dynamics and affect global crude oil prices.
However, according to Reuters, Venezuelan state energy company PDVSA said oil production and refining operations continued as normal, adding that its most critical facilities had suffered no damage from the US attacks.
The real impact will likely become clearer over time. That said, Venezuela’s oil exports have already been severely restricted by US sanctions, which have limited the country’s role in global supply chains and could limit the immediate impact on global oil supplies.
3) US markets
Domestic markets will take cues from moves on Wall Street. On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 48,382.40, up 319.10 points, or 0.66%, while the S&P 500 closed at 6,858.47, up 12.97 points, or 0.19%.
Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite ended marginally lower, down 6.36 points, or 0.03%, at 23,235.60.
4) FII/DII action
Data on Friday showed foreign institutional investors (FIIs) buying Indian shares worth Rs 290 crore. However, foreign outflows during the first two sessions of January stood at Rs 7,608 crore.
FIIs were net sellers in December, selling domestic equities worth Rs 22,611 crore during the month, taking total outflows to Rs 1,66,286 crore in 2025.
Market experts expect a turnaround in capital flows in 2026, supported by strong domestic fundamentals and an improvement in corporate earnings.
Read more: FIIs dump Rs 7,608 cr in two sessions after 1.66 lakh cr sell-off in 2025 Why do experts remain convinced of a trend reversal in 2026?
5) Third quarter profits
As the main earnings drive kicks off on January 12 with the announcement of December quarter results by Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) and HCL Technologies, company updates have already started coming in thick and fast.
Among the major companies, Avenue Supermarts, which operates the DMart chain of stores, will announce its results on Saturday, January 10. The company reported a 13% year-on-year increase in standalone revenue from operations to Rs 17,613 crore for the quarter ended December 31, 2025, compared to Rs 15,565 crore in the year-ago period.
Marico, Punjab National Bank (PNB) and Bajaj Finance have also released their quarterly updates and these stocks are expected to remain in focus in the near term.
6) IPO watch
One motherboard initial offering (IPO) of Bharat Coking Coal Limited (BCCL) will open for subscription on Friday, January 9 and close on January 13. The Rs 1,300 crore issue will be entirely an offer for sale (OFS), with promoter Coal India Limited (CIL) selling up to 46.57 crore shares.
The company will announce the price range for the issue on Monday, January 5.
Also read: Bharat Coking Coal IPO: Coal India arm to launch IPO on January 9. Check GMP, price and other details
In addition, three SME publications – Gabion Technologies India, Victory Electric Vehicles International and Yajur Fibers – will also be open for subscriptions.
Meanwhile, the Modern Diagnostic & Research Center will make its market debut on Wednesday, January 7.
7) Technical triggers
Deciphering the charts, Ajit Mishra, Senior Vice President–Research at Religare Broking, said Nifty’s decisive move above 26,200 and closing at record highs confirms the end of a five-week consolidation phase. Immediate support is seen around 26,000, with a stronger base at 25,700.
A sustained move above 26,300 could pave the way for a rise towards the 26,500-26,700 zone, and possibly towards 27,000, Mishra said.
With supportive domestic macro cues and improving earnings visibility, he added that a constructive yet selective approach remains advisable. Investors, he said, should focus on structurally strong sectors such as banking, metals, automotive, select PSU stocks and capital goods.
8) Rupee vs Dollar
The Indian rupee fell below the 90 mark to trade 22 paise lower at 90.20 against the US dollar on Friday, under pressure from a strengthening dollar in overseas markets.
Forex traders said continued foreign fund outflows and strong demand for dollars from importers further dented sentiment, PTI reported. However, softer crude oil prices and a sharp rally in domestic equities helped soften the downtrend. Traders added that any intervention from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) could support the rupee at lower levels.
9) Gold and silver trends
After an extraordinary performance in 2025, when gold rose almost 70% to surpass the $4,500 per ounce mark and silver shot up more than 128% to above $80 per ounce, 2026 looks set to see further gains for both precious metals.
U.S. action against Venezuela could further strengthen the precious metal’s appeal as a safe-haven asset, adding to the underlying fundamental drivers supporting gold and silver. This shift in risk sentiment could in turn weigh on the outlook for equity markets.
10) Anchor lock expiration date
There will be a focus on a number of stocks this week as IPO lock-in periods expire, potentially increasing tradable supply on the secondary market.
For Om Freight Forwarders, the mandatory holding period ends on Monday, January 5, freeing up about 6 lakh shares, or about 2% of total outstanding equity, according to Nuvama estimates. The lock-in for Advance Agrolife will also expire the same day, freeing up almost 3 million shares for trading.
On Tuesday, January 6, the IPO lock-in for WeWork India Management expires, making approximately 10 million shares, approximately 8% of outstanding equity, eligible for trading.
The action will continue on Wednesday when Tata Capital’s mandatory lock-in ends, allowing nearly 7.1 crore shares to enter the tradable pool. Finally, LG Electronics India’s lock-in expires on Thursday, freeing up about 1.5 crore shares, or about 2% of its total outstanding share capital, Nuvama said.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions expressed by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
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