US CPI Data Finally Drops Today: Will Bitcoin Relive Its Painful Past?

BTC has stabilized at $111,000 at the time of writing, but more volatility is expected later today.

The US government shutdown continues in full force, now in its 24th day. It became the second-longest period in US history, breaking the record of 35 days set during Trump’s first term in 2019. According to current data, about two million workers have had their payments suspended, while 900,000 workers have been furloughed.

In addition, many government-related sectors have fallen behind in meeting certain deadlines, such as the release of last month’s consumer price index numbers, which are critical in determining the Fed’s next move. After a major delay of over a week, September CPI figures will be released later today, which is expected to impact BTC as it has done numerous times in the past. The question is: will the price drop from the previous announcement be repeated?

Higher than expected?

According to experts, general expectations in Washington are that consumer prices rose for the second month in a row in September to believerelates to tariff-sensitive goods.

“The government shutdown may have changed the September release date of the CPI, but it has not changed the stubborn state of inflation. Beneath the surface, we expect goods inflation to remain elevated due to continued tariff pass-through, while an easing of primary care costs should help cool inflation in the services sector,” said Sarah House, a senior economist at Wells Fargo.

In a statement to CryptoPotatoBitfinex analysts noted:

“We will first look at the split of the core CPI and the ex-housing services sector, as a monthly average above about 0.35 percent or a core figure that rises above 3.2 percent year-on-year will raise real interest rates, strengthen the dollar and reduce risk appetite, while softer pressure below about 2.8 percent year-on-year or a weaker monthly pace will undermine expectations for interest rate cuts will revive interest rate risk.”

Despite the significant risk of rising inflation, the US Federal Reserve is expected to cut policy rates later this month and possibly again in December.

Will BTC Dump Again?

As reported over a month ago, the price of BTC dropped immediately after the release of the US CPI data for August, which was quite surprising considering that the numbers were in line with expectations. As such, many expect Bitcoin to head south if September data comes in higher than expected.

$BTC once again bounced back from the $106.00-$107.000 support zone.

Trump hinted at a big deal with China, which is a good thing.

Furthermore, the CPI is due tomorrow, and a lower than expected print will be bullish for Bitcoin.

If the CPI is higher than expected, expect more pain… pic.twitter.com/G0HeD763dz

— Ted (@TedPillows) October 23, 2025

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However, the cryptocurrency has proven in the past that it often moves in the opposite direction of what people expect. Nevertheless, BTC volatility for today is very likely due to the importance of the CPI numbers and the scheduled Fed meeting next week.