I wrote a blog post on Precious Metals in June 2025, outlining their recent performance and prospects.
You can find my June 2025 blog post on the Forex Analytix website.
In 2025, one of the most talked about asset classes has been Precious Metals, and rightly so.
In the Forex Analytix chat rooms and webinars I have been talking about PM’s upside potential for months. I remember saying that silver in the $20 years will be a distant memory, and the same goes for gold in the $2000 years.
There have been many reasons for the recent rise in precious metals, and some of them include the following:
- Strong central bank purchases, led by China.
- The shift from an interest rate increase cycle to an interest rate reduction cycle.
- A decline in the USD – the DXY index fell from 110 in January 2025 to the low 96s.
- A rise in global geopolitical tensions, driving flows to safe haven assets.
I’ve been talking about targets around $50 for silver and $4,000 for gold for a while now, and obviously so have a lot of other market analysts and participants. With these objectives achieved, I exited all my precious metals and miner longs, and warned – again, in our chat rooms and webinars – against attempts to drive the markets higher.
What happened next and where are we now?
Gold peaked at $4,400 in October 2025 and corrected sharply lower. We are currently trading just below $4,000 and moving into what appears to be a bearish flag. If confirmed, this move could reach as high as 61.8 fib at $3,720 and perhaps even as high as 78.6 at $3,540.
Silver peaked just below $54.50 in October 2025 and also corrected sharply lower. We are currently trading below $48 and are also in a bearish structure. The targets for this are at $44.48 and the major convergence of support is around $41.5.
It is becoming clear that sentiment and positioning for precious metals have become extremely bullish. Silver in particular broke its all-time high above $50, undoubtedly creating large numbers of new long positions. Retail had not participated in the overall 2025 rally, and it is likely that they were all rushing into FOMO in an attempt not to miss this slam dunk opportunity.
Unfortunately, when this happens, such moves invariably reverse in short order. What we’re seeing now is probably a quick buck and the retail industry is eager to stop. There is also a lot of ‘catch a falling knife’ trading, where people think metals have ‘fallen too far’. This will likely exacerbate the move down until we reach the target levels mentioned above.
Mining companies have also returned from their highs, although their 2025 performance remains impressive.
The GDX ETF (Gold Senior Miners) has fallen from the October highs of 85 to 69, targeting 62.4 and 55.38.
The SIL ETF (Silver Senior Miners) has fallen from its high of 80.72 to 63, targeting the low 50s.
The takeaways from the markets as I see them are quite simple. All the fundamentals for a sustained rally in the metals and mining sectors are in place, but patience is required. In my opinion, it is likely that we will achieve the goals mentioned above, and I will again look to scale into longs.
The biggest risk to this scenario is a general risk exit, especially if the markets panic and sell off. If this happens, all asset classes will likely be hit hard, including precious metals. We’ve seen this many times in the past, such as during the 2008 crisis and the 2020 Covid sell-off: even safe havens like gold are sold off in the broad selling panic. Patience and prudence are required, always with discipline and sound risk management.
Thanks for reading and trading safely.
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Benzinga Disclaimer: This article is from an unpaid third party contributor. It does not represent Benzinga reporting and is not edited for content or accuracy.
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