Here’s a look at the Smarty Jones field, starting with the Kenny McPeek-trained universe assigned to the inside post position (rail). This colt comes into the Smarty Jones having finished third, second and second in three consecutive graded stakes to conclude his two-year-old campaign. Universe makes its Oaklawn debut on Saturday and will be ridden for the first time by Joel Rosario. Baytown Dreamer switches back to dirt after five consecutive turf starts and has good odds of 30-1 on the morning line. Boca Beach Club achieved the highest Equibase Speed Figure of any race participant, posting a 98 last time out, while finishing second in Oaklawn Park’s Advent Stakes in mid-December. The Omaha Beach colt will make his first bid for a route distance that Luis Saez will ride. Silent Tactic comes to the Mark Casse stable from Woodbine after a close second in the Grade 3 bet365 Gray Stakes on an all-weather track. Morning-line 5-2 favorite Rancho Santa Fe is undefeated after two career starts for trainer Brad Cox, and Florent Geroux remains aboard after wins that came at one mile and then 1 1/16 miles. Oscar’s Hope, who has finished first or second since the start of his career, comes in fresh from a 2 ¾ length victory in the Jean Lafitte Stakes at Delta Downs for the red-hot Tom Amoss stable in late November. Mark Casse’s second entry, Strategic Risk, was nine lengths last time out in Gulfstream Park’s FTBOA Florida Sire In Reality Stakes at the same distance of 1 1/16 miles and keeps Javier Castellano in the saddle. Scar Ship won his first race by 9 ½ lengths in career start number three at Delta Downs and then finished second by just a half-length in the six-furlong Louisiana Champions Day Juvenile Stakes at Fair Grounds. Sleepingonfreedom, another Kenny McPeek trainee, rounds out the field with back-to-back victories at the Kentucky circuit. Brian Hernandez Jr. retains the mount after piloting the Independence Hall colt in his late November win, covering 1 1/16 miles at Churchill Downs.
Analysis and top contenders:
Universe ranks first in this field in terms of average class with a 94 after three consecutive appearances in the stakes. In his career debut last August at Saratoga, Universe suffered significant setbacks as he slammed the gate at the start, but still unleashed a powerful rally to pull away and win by 4 ½ lengths in a seven-furlong dirt race. That striking debut set the tone for his subsequent strong campaign against top-level competition. The bay colt encountered trouble again in his next start, the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes at Belmont at the Big A, where he was bumped hard in the break between horses but still finished a respectable third in a one-turn race. In October, Universe stretched to 1 1/16 miles while racing with blinders removed for the first time and finished second in the Grade 3 Street Sense Stakes at Churchill Downs, earning a career-best 92 Equibase Speed Figure. Last time out in Churchill’s Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, Universe put in another solid performance to finish second 1 ¾ lengths behind the heavily favored Further Ado. In that 1 1/16-mile race, he rallied late after being eight lengths off the pace through six furlongs. Universe faces easier competition in the Smarty Jones, moving from a class rating of 109 in the Kentucky Jockey Club to a 93 on Saturday. Trainer Kenny McPeek has historically excelled in unrated stakes at Oaklawn Park over the past three years, winning at a 27% clip and a top-three mark of 56% from 41 starts while delivering a strong 85% return on investment. Another notable change is Brian Hernandez Jr.’s jockey switch. to Joel Rosario. Although McPeek and Rosario have teamed up only once in the last three years, that lone start resulted in a victory with Rattle N Roll in the Tinsel Stakes at Oaklawn on December 20, which also followed a driver change by Hernandez Jr. Despite having just one win from four career starts, Universe has consistently put in strong efforts against graded stakes company and owns two second-place finishes at the Smarty Jones’ 1 1/16-mile distance. It fits the bill here and offers attractive value with a morning line price of 3-1 while benefiting from meaningful class relief.
With morning line odds of 8-1, Oscar’s hope adds enormous value to this race for trainer Tom Amoss, who is winning at 44% over the last ten days and has four wins from nine starts. Oscar’s Hope has never finished worse than second in his career and has made three trips to the winner’s circle from five career starts. He debuted in a six-furlong dirt-maiden special weight race at Saratoga in August and finished a respectable second before dominating by 5 ¾ lengths the next time out at the same level, distance and track. In October, Oscar’s Hope shipped to Keeneland and finished second at the allowance level to the heavily favored Outfielder before winning an optional allowance claimer at Churchill Downs, again at the six-furlong distance. Last time out he stretched to 7 ½ furlongs at Delta Downs and finished strongly, winning clearly by 2 ¾ lengths while earning a career-best 93 Equibase figure. Not only does Oscar’s Hope find its way to the winner’s circle, but it also takes first place in the late pace with a 107.0 rating. Last year on dirt tracks, horses with the highest late pace score won in the race 33% of 417 starts and finished in the top three 67% of the time. This colt should run well and has the chance to be a dangerous contender; however, the question remains about his ability to handle two innings.
Santa Fe Ranch has been flawless through two career starts and enters the Smarty Jones as a top contender. The Tapit colt made his debut at Ellis Park last August in a maiden one-mile special weight race and was by far the best, winning by 1 ¾ lengths while earning an Equibase rating of 86. He took another step forward in his second start, stretching to 1 1/16 miles around two turns at Keeneland and improved to a mark of 88 as he recorded a narrow half-length victory at the optional compensation claim level. Both Infiltrate, who finished second in that race, and third-place Grand Mahogany, returned to win in their subsequent starts. As mentioned above, Florent Geroux was on board for both Rancho Santa Fe wins and retains the mount in the Smarty Jones, a positive that Geroux travels to Oaklawn for this single mount on Saturday. Trainer Brad Cox, who won this race in 2024 with the aforementioned Catching Freedom, has been successful in non-graded stakes at Oaklawn Park over the past three years, winning at a 35% clip and posting a top-three score of 71% from 34 total starts. While the Smarty Jones represents a step up in his class, Rancho Santa Fe has done everything asked of him so far and looks more than capable of delivering another winning performance as he makes his stakes debut.
The rest of the field, with their best Equibase speed figures in comparable races, does Baytown dreamer (82), Boca Beach Club (98), Silent tactics (85), Strategic risk (86), Scar ship (90), and Sleep on freedom (88).
Win contenders in preference order:
Universe
Oscar’s hope
Santa Fe Ranch
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