UltraTech Cement Q3 Preview: Strong Volumes Drive Up to 25% QoQ PAT Growth; turnover can be up to 11%

UltraTech Cement is expected to deliver stable Q3 26 numbers, led by strong volume growth, healthy sales growth and sequential improvement in profitability. Profit after tax (PAT) could rise by double digits, up to 25% quarter-on-quarter, according to estimates from four brokerages, which see profits in the range of Rs 1,533 crore to Rs 1,454 crore. Turnover could also increase between 5% and 11%, the estimates show.Brokers remain constructive on demand recovery in November-December, improved occupancy and easing cost pressures, although margin estimates vary.

The top line is seen in the range of Rs 20,600 crore to Rs 21,715 crore.The PAT estimates fall within a wide range on a year-over-year basis, with Emkay expecting a decline of 1.3%, while YES Securities sees a 13% growth in the company’s adjusted net profit in the quarter under review.

Estimates from YES Securities, HDFC Securities, ElaraCapital and Emkay Research have been taken into account.

The Aditya Birla Group company will announce its October-December quarterly results on Saturday.

This is what real estate agents expect:

1) PAT– YES securities: Adjusted PAT of Rs 1,533 crore, up 13% YoY and up 25% QoQ.
— HDFC Securities expects an adjusted PAT of Rs 1,462 crore, up 7.5% YoY and 19% QoQ.

— ElaraCapital expects PAT of Rs 1,480 crore, up 9% YoY and 20% QoQ
— Emkay Research is relatively cautious on PAT at Rs 1,454 crore, down marginally 1.3% YoY but up 17% QoQ.

2) Income

— YES Securities estimates net sales at Rs 21,715 crore, up 22% year-on-year and 11% quarter-on-quarter.
— ElaraCapital expects revenue of Rs 21,380 crore, up 20% year-on-year and 9% quarter-on-quarter.
— HDFC Securities: Rs 20,618 crore, up 16% and up 5.2% QoQ
— Emkay Research: Rs 20,600 crore, up 20% YoY and up 5% QoQ

3) BitDa

Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) are likely to post double-digit growth on an annual and quarterly basis.
— HDFC Securities expects EBITDA of Rs 3,506 crore, up 21% YoY and 13% QoQ.
— YES Securities sees EBITDA of Rs 3,499 crore.
— ElaraCapital: Rs 3,460 crore, up 19% YoY and 12% QoQ.
— Emkay Research: Rs 3,384 crore, up 17% YoY and up 9% QoQ.

4) EBITDA margin

Margins are expected to gradually improve as cost pressures ease, although estimates vary.

— HDFC Securities with an EBITDA margin of 17%, up 70 year-on-year and 120 basis points.
— However, Emkay Research expects a margin of 16.4%, down 36 bps YoY and 65 bps QoQ, citing softer realizations.

5) Volumes

Volume growth remains the main highlight of the past quarter.

— YES Securities expects volumes to rise 24% year-on-year and 11% quarter-on-quarter, with occupancy improving to 78%, helped by better occupancy at ICL and Kesoram.

— HDFC Securities and Emkay estimate sales volumes at 36.5-36.7 tonnes, implying 15-21% year-on-year growth.

— Emkay notes that while volumes remain robust, blended realizations could decline sequentially, leaving EBITDA per tonne broadly flat.

Disclaimer: (Disclaimer: The recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions expressed by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)