Ukraine hits Russia’s main oil terminal again as export pressure mounts

Kiev’s campaign against Moscow’s energy infrastructure shows no signs of slowing as drones continue to attack export facilities that provide important war revenue for the Kremlin.

RBC-Ukraine reported on November 14 that Ukrainian drones attacked Russia’s strategic Black Sea port of Novorossiysk early Friday, damaging a docked ship, starting a fire at the Sheskharis oil terminal and possibly hitting an S-300/400 air defense position, citing local reports and Ukrainian intelligence sources.

The attack targeted one of Russia’s most critical energy export hubs – the terminus of pipelines operated by state-owned Transneft. Oil prices rose about 2% on Friday on renewed supply concerns after the attack. according to to Reuters.

June Goh, a senior oil market analyst at Sparta Commodities, told Reuters that the strike in Novorossiysk “has raised new fears of oil supply disruptions as this port is the second-largest oil export hub in Russia and follows another major attack on Tuapse just two weeks ago.”

The head of the Ukrainian Center for Combating Disinformation, Andrii Kovalenko, confirmed the strike in a speech after on Telegram, where images of the damaged terminal are shared. “This is the oil terminal in Novorossiysk after the attack,” he wrote, noting that the attack contrasts with Russia’s ongoing attacks on residential buildings and critical energy infrastructure across Ukraine.

A pattern of pressure

Friday’s attack continues Ukraine’s systematic campaign against Russia’s energy infrastructure as the Kremlin takes action strikes on the Ukrainian gas and electricity networks before winter. Novorossiysk has become a recurring target since Russia forced to move the Black Sea Fleet in 2023 due to the continued attacks of Ukrainian drones.

The attack echoes an attack on September 24, when Ukrainian naval drones crippled both the Novorossiysk and Tuapse facilities – the first time naval drones have been used in such an attack. operation. The export-oriented Toeapse factory, which has a processing capacity of 240,000 barrels per day, has become increasingly vulnerable as repeated strikes force closures and disrupt Rosneft’s ability to move refined products through the Black Sea.

The strike mirrors a September 24th attack when Ukrainian naval drones crippled both the Novorossiysk and Tuapse facilities – the first time naval drones had been used in such an operation. The export-oriented Toeapse factory, which has a processing capacity of 240,000 barrels per day, has become increasingly vulnerable as repeated strikes force closures and disrupt Rosneft’s ability to move refined products through the Black Sea.

The same month, a Ukrainian military intelligence drone also struck a rare Russian MPSV07-class ship near Novorossiysk, disabling its electronic systems and forcing it into costly repairs. According to the Kiev Independent, the ship was worth $60 million hit while patrolling Novorossiysk Bay.

Then on November 2, a massive Ukrainian drone strike set a Russian oil tanker on fire in Tuapse and damaged oil loading facilities at a nearby Rosneft terminal. according to to Bloomberg.

In October, Reuters reported that Russia is already operating Novorossiysk at maximum export capacity. Months of Ukrainian drone attacks have pushed refinery outages to record levels, pushing seaborne exports to multi-year highs and increasing Russia’s dependence on the Black Sea corridor, which Kiev is increasingly targeting, including with naval drones.

Ukraine has also expanded its campaign far beyond the Black Sea, remarkable Russia’s Primorsk oil terminal on the Baltic Sea, the terminus of the Baltic pipeline system and a key hub for the Kremlin’s “shadow fleet” of sanctions-evading tankers. The September attack, which also hit pumping stations supplying the Ust-Luga terminal, underlines how Kiev is now targeting every major artery of Russia’s export network it can reach.

Economic pressure is increasing

At the same time, new US sanctions over Lukoil and Rosneft have unsettled buyers in China, India and Turkey, causing purchases of Russian crude to be cut and nearly a billion barrels left at sea. Combined with Ukrainian drone strikes, the pressure from both kinetic and economic measures is increasing the pressure on Moscow’s ability to move and monetize its oil.

With pressure mounting on multiple fronts, including around Pokrovsk, Russia has still managed to replenish its ranks recruiting approximately 30,000 soldiers per month. Moscow can only maintain that pace because it continues to generate significant oil revenues, which it uses to pay recruitment bonuses and wages to both Russian and foreign fighters.

For Kiev, the strategy is therefore twofold: demote the Kremlin’s fighting forces on the front lines and increase the economic costs of the war by undermining Russia’s ability to finance its mobilization through energy exports.

Ukraine’s domestically produced Flamingo cruise missile, reportedly used in recent attacks, indicates an expansion of deep attack capabilities and the growing scope of damage it can inflict. The pace of attacks on energy infrastructure is likely to increase in the coming months, forcing Moscow to make increasingly expensive decisions about what to protect with its pre-existing infrastructure. stretched air defense.