The final PPV of the year and current era, UFC 323, takes place this weekend from the fight capital of the world, Las Vegas. We provide you with all your UFC 323 betting tips and picks.
We are treated to a championship double header as we have the Bantamweight Championship and the Flyweight Championship up for grabs.
In the main event, Merab Dvalishvili and Petr Yan meet in a rematch of their 2023 fight, but this time gold is at stake.
The co-main event sees young prospect Joshua Van clash with seasoned champion Alexandre Pantoja for the flyweight title.
With plenty of intriguing fights up and down, we bring you our UFC 323 betting tips.
Betting tips for UFC 323
Merab Dvalishvili wins via decision -210
While these aren’t the best odds, Merab Dvalishvili heads to UFC 323 to give it a try making history. If he wins, he will become the first UFC champion to make four defenses in a calendar year.
So why not rewind and repeat? When Merab and Yan first met, it was a one-sided defeat for the now champion. A dominant performance from the Georgian saw him take down Yan 11 times, but attempt 49 insane takedowns more than 25 minutes. Yan was never able to get his game going and was ultimately defeated convincingly by Dvalishvili.
Since then, Dvalishvili has gone 5-0, defeating Henry Cejudo, Sean O’Malley (twice), Umar Nurmagomedov and Cory Sandhagen. Without a doubt, an impressive run. Yan bounced back from the loss to defeat Song Yadong, Deiveson Figueiredo and Marcus McGhee.
The first of our UFC 323 betting tips is for Merab Dvalishvili to win via decision. Yan is too good to finish, but Merab is simply too dominant not to win.
Alexandre Pantoja wins your entry +155
The champion, Alexandre Pantoja, is set to make his second title defense of the year as he clashes with Joshua Van. Enjoying an eight-fight winning run, the #5 ranked pound-for-pound fighter in the world has been on a tear since winning the title and is feared at 125 pounds.
Van is the newcomer. He is only 24 years old and has a UFC record of 8-1. The funny scrapper is always looking for a piece and in his last performance against Brandon Royval he showed the heart of a champion. He has heavy hands and recorded four knockdowns in his last two fights.
The problem for Van is his mentality. He is too willing to stand in the pocket and throw with his opponents, something Pantoja can take advantage of. If the champion can lure him into extended combinations, he can time the takedown and work out his elite ground game.
Van’s takedown defense stands at 81%, but has been knocked out 10 times in his UFC career. Although Pantoja’s takedown accuracy is only 47%, he is ruthless in his pursuit of keeping his opponents on the ground. Since becoming champion, Pantoja has racked up 23 takedowns in four fights, defeating his last two opponents.
Joshua Van is coming again, but the second of our UFC 323 betting tips is Pantoja via submission.
Henry Cejudo outright +225
In what will be his final walk, Henry Cejudo calls time on an epic career as he takes on newcomer Payton Talbott.
The former two-time champion and Olympic gold medalist will look to snap a three-fight skid as Talbott looks to win his second fight in a row.
Interestingly enough, Cejudo is as high as a +225 underdog going into the fight, despite being the much more experienced man there. He has more UFC fights than Talbott in total. Plus, he has more title fights than Talbott promotional outings.
There is a clear path to victory for Cejudo and it is his bread and butter. Wrestling. Talbott is a fantastic striker, but in his only career loss, Talbott was brought down eight times by Raoni Barcelos and largely controlled on the ground. He was also eliminated three times last time against Filipe Lima, although he did show some improvements.
We know Cejudo can wrestle, his credentials speak for themselves. If he wants to win, he must go back to what he knows best in his final performance. At +225 it’s worth the risk and that’s why this is the last of our UFC 323 betting tips.
Other bets to be aware of
Mansur Abdul-Malik wins via stoppage
Jalin Turner outright (-250)
Terrance McKinney vs. Chris Duncan – Under 1.5 rounds (-360)
Karine Silva outright (+140)
Grant Dawson vs Manuel Torres – over 1.5 rounds (+130)
Do you support one of our UFC 323 betting tips? Let us know in the comments below!
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