The Tulane Green Wave heads to Oxford, Mississippi to play the Ole Miss Rebels for the second time this season, but this time in the first round of the College Football Playoff. The only difference is that Lane Kiffin won’t be there to coach Ole Miss. Kickoff is Saturday at 3:30 PM ET on TNT.
These are my favorite bets for this first round match.
Tulane Green Wave vs. Ole Miss Rebels chances
Moneyline: Tulane +1100 / Ole Miss -2500
Spread: Tulane +17.5 (-118) / Ole Miss -17.5 (-104)
Total: Over 56.5 (-112) / Under 56.5 (-108)
Tulane Green Wave vs. Ole Miss Rebels Best Bet #1: Ole Miss -17.5 (-104)
Tulane earned a spot at the CFP table with a win over North Texas in the AAC Championship. Not to take anything away from the Green Wave, but they had a bit of luck throughout the match. Multiple passes bounced off the hands of UNT receivers into the hands of Tulane defenders, and the Mean Green even botched an interception that fell into the hands of a Tulane receiver for a first down. Needless to say, Ole Miss is unlikely to turn the ball over five times at home against this Tulane defense.
Tulane’s defensive stats aren’t great by any means. As of Week 9, the Green Wave rank 67th in PPA per game, 101st in success rate and 89th in points allowed per quality drive – and Ole Miss can absolutely take advantage of that. It boasts an offense that ranked 14th, 52nd and 21st in these metrics respectively – also against better competition. After all, the Rebels already showed the talent gap once in this game when they defeated the Green Wave 45-10, outscoring them 548 to 282. Why should that change now that Tulane head coach Jon Sumrall has one foot out the door and Ole Miss wants to prove that its success is due to more than just Kiffin. At -17.5 it’s a harder pill to swallow than -16.5 or -17, but here it’s Ole Miss or nothing.
Tulane Green Wave vs. Ole Miss Rebels Best Bet #2: Trinidad Chambliss Over 272.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Tulane’s secondary is the weakness of its defense and that’s why I liked North Texas so much in the AAC title game. Obviously that didn’t work, but the same handicap applies here. The Green Wave rank 98th in PPA per pass and 108th in passing PPA as of late October, which is part of the reason why they rank outside the top 75 in third-down conversion rate allowed this season. QB Trinidad Chambliss should be able to lead the Rebels up and down the field against this defense again in September after throwing for 307 yards on just 27 attempts in September – in what was just his second start at the FBS level.
The expected blowout nature is certainly a concern here, but Chambliss has shown himself to be an incredible threat in the field. He ranks in the top 20 in big throws and yards per attempt, sixth nationally in PFF passer rating on throws of at least 20 yards and fifth in adjusted completion percentage on those deep passes. Not to mention that Ole Miss has three top-15 receivers when it comes to yards after catch per reception. Considering Tulane is 128th in allowing passes of at least 20 yards, I don’t see how the Green Wave can stop Chambliss.
#Tulane #Ole #CFP #odds #preview #picks #predictions