WASHINGTON – An unbridled promise of Donald Trump’s presidency is that he would end the war between Russia and Ukraine in A quick diplomatic masterstroke.
Trump made Threats. He applied Busy. Yet the bombs continue to fall, the victims continue to accumulate.
Now Trump is following a face-to-face meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin will result in the elusive breakthrough and possible Came to worry among voters About his handling of the war.
The top that takes place on Friendly Turf, the Red State of Alaska on Friday, amounts to one of the largest gambling of Trump’s second term. Organizing the meeting increases the expectations that he will stop fighting. The president is confronted with falling in sitting with Putin, who is well at home in the territorial issues at stake, but he also enjoys economic and military leverage. Creating a sustainable peace that will maintain the independence of Ukraine will test the dealing skills that Trump’s Point of Pride are.
“If you enter the meeting that is not prepared, you can get stuck by Putin,” said Michael McFaul, who was the American ambassador in Russia in the Obama government. “Tops are to achieve a goal that promotes American national interests. They are the means to end, and I sometimes think Trump thinks the meeting is a goal in itself.”
Within the Trump government, a national security officer recognized that forging a peace agreement will not be easy. One of the fighters will not be at the table: the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zenskyyy, who refused to give up to Russia that was that was illegally attached.
“Whether there will be a breakthrough or not in the coming week or two, we will find out,” said the Trump administration officer, speaking of anonymity. “Ultimately, Putin and Zenskyy must be able to agree on something fundamentally. Third parties can do everything they want, but these two men have to agree with things.”
Sitting in a room with Putin, in himself, a Canny negotiator, Trump can be lured to endorse a peace agreement that warns Ukraine, experts from foreign policy.
“I am worried that in the eagerness to look like a peacemaker, President Trump will say:” Yes, that sounds like a good idea for me, “said McFaul.” Putin will say, “Donetsk [a city in eastern Ukraine] Always was part of Russia. “And Trump will say,” You’re right about that. ”
“Putin is good at those stories,” McFaul continued. “He knows his history and he can occupy his story. That is what the president should be ready for and his team must prepare him.”
Another possibility is that Putin tries to further block the president, and promises concessions that he is not going to make in the hope of consolidating profits on the battlefield, a former American officer said.
Putin can try to distract President Trump from Trump’s goal to stop the war and strike -to establish the -fires by promising things later, “said William Taylor, who was D” Affair at the American Embassy in Ukraine during Trump’s first term. “Then Putin continues to fight and the Ukrainians continues to kill.”
Whatever the outcome, Putin comes away with at least a symbolic victory: he gets a large, clear stage at a time when he is an international paria. Two years ago, the International Criminal Court has one arrest warrant for Putin, accuse him of war crimes in which the Kidnapping of Ukrainian children. The order limited potential locations considerably limited for the two world leaders to meet.
“President Trump – just by going to a meeting with Putin, who for the most part of the Democratic world is a villain state, an imperialist dictator – gives him legitimacy,” said McFaul.
The top will inevitably invite comparisons with a Helsinki in 2018.
During a joint press conference with Putin that year, Trump came off to forge a personal bond after years of icy bilateral relationships between the US and Russia. With reference to Putin’s denial of interfering in the presidential race of 2016, Trump said at the time: “I see no reason why it would be,” Russia, who was involved in Hillary Clinton that year. (He later claimed He had spoken incorrectly and confirmed that he believed that the conclusion of the American intelligence community that the Russian interference had taken place, but added that there could also be “other people” who were involved in the 2016 elections).
This time Trump is more experienced and it has become impatient with Putin’s behavior of the war. He has suggested that his wife, Melania Trump, Has influenced his view of Putin and reminds him of the damage caused by Russia Ukraine.
For his part, Putin is more reduced. From this summer, Russian victims It was expected that it would hit a million. If he chooses, Trump could punish Russia to extend the war Secondary sanctions on countries that buy Russian energyA step he has threatened to take.
“This time Trump is in a stronger position than in that first meeting,” said Taylor. “If President Trump enters the meeting with Putin and exercises political, military and economic leverage that he has, there can be a ceasefish.”
Trump goes to the top to experience problems at home. His administration has trouble the return of his base about the Jeffrey Epstein case. Last week Trump fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics after an recruitment report that turned out to be weak job growth.
A recent poll from the University of Massachusetts Amherst showed that Trump Approval classification was 38% -A decrease of six points from April.
“He is fairly close to the theoretical floor in this polarized era for approval classifications,” said Alexander Theodoridis, director of the poll.
Among Trump voters, the support for his handling of the war in Russia-Ukraine was 64% compared to other issues in which they approved his performance by considerably higher margins, Theodoridis said. A total of 85% Van Trump’s 2024 voters approved his performance about immigration problems; 78% preferred their work on jobs; and 71% at rates.
Statecraft is a proven way for presidents to improve their status at home. A supreme commander enjoys much more latitude in shaping events in the arena of foreign policy than when it comes to domestic affairs.
The top, said Senator Chris Coons, a Delaware -Democrat who participates in the Foreign Relations Committee, “will change the subject in a positive way for Trump if he actually stands up for Putin and demands a just peace for Ukraine.”
“That would be a positive distraction,” Coons added. “But it would be the worst of both worlds like it [the summit] is intended as well as a derivation of the domestic focus on things such as rates and Epstein, and it is not strong. “
An extra incentive for Trump to terminate the conflict A price he seems to be desirable. His White House seems to methodically build a business where he has earned the Nobel Prize in Peace, so that attention Different efforts To reduce tensions in global hotspots.
January 31 is the deadline for nominating candidates for the 2026 Peace Prize. The Nobel selection committee will announce the winner in October of that year.
On Friday, Trump held a ceremony In the White House on the occasion of an American agreement that ends the hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Early by reporters, the leaders of both countries have advertised Trump’s candidacy for a prize that three other US presidents have won. Barack Obama was the most recent winner in 2009.
Yet the peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan would only be an amuse bouche compared to the termination of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, a nuclear arming power.
“Putin is clearly in a weaker position,” said Taylor. “This invasion of Ukraine has turned out to be a disaster for him. And Trump has the cards this time. He has leverage, experience and self -confidence. He wants to solve this problem and end the war. He sees that Putin is the problem. Putin stands between him and the end of the war.”
President Donald Trump said he “finds it difficult” to deal with Ukraine by trying to end the war and that he “is doing very well with Russia”.
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