Although topline can rise to 36% yo-y, the EBITDA margin will probably contract due to a soft revenue growth of the same store (SSSG), cost inflation and competitive pressure.
As a result, the net profit of the company will probably take a hit, say brokers who are evenly distributed over this statistics. Of the four estimates considered, two indicate a profit after tax (pat) decrease, while others see low growth by one digit.
The estimates of Phillipcapital (PC), Nuvama Institutional shares, Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL) and Kotak Institutional Equits have been considered.
This is what their estimates are on these 4 statistics:
1) Pat
– Phillipcapital: RS 351 CRORE, an increase of 3% yoj and flat QOQ – Nuvama sees Core Pat on RS 288 crore, decrease of 16% yoj and a decrease of 18% QOQ – MOFSL: RS 356 crore, an increase of 4.1% yoj
– Kotak -shares: RS 509 Crore, an increase of 48.7% yoj and an increase of 45.4% QoQ
2) Income
– Phillipcapital: RS 4,788 CRORE, an increase of 20% JoJ and an increase of 17% QOQ
– Nuvama: RS 5,061 Crore, an increase of 20% yoj and 17% QoQ
– Mofsl: RS 4,790 Crore, an increase of 20% yoj
– Kotak -Shares: RS 5,428 Crore, an increase of 36% yej and an increase of 32.2% QoQ
Mixed turnover per store and per square foot based on the calculated net turnover is likely to be on RS 4.72 Crore, with 7% JOJ and RS 3,511, with 17% Joj respectively, said Phillipcapital.
Phillipcapital called the sales growth of Trent ‘weak’ and took 4%of the growth of the LFL. “This would also be due to the strategy of Trent of cannibalization of newly opened stores near good performing locations, a wider demand delay, geopolitical headwind and the natural impact of a high comparative basis,” said it in a note.
In the meantime, Kotak attributed the strong double-digit revenue growth to new store additions in Zudio (20 Net Store additives on a QoQ base) and Westside (5 Net Store additions on a QoQ basic), partially compensated with 5.7% yo-drie in sales per square foot. We expect that the growth of the yo -yo of 39%, powered by adding stores with greater size.
The revenue growth of Trent is expected to remain robust, led by aggressive shopping additives in Westide and Zudio.
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3) Bitda
– Phillipcapital: RS 724 Crore, an increase of 19% JOJ and an increase of 10% QoQ
– Nuvama: RS 560 Crore, with 8% JoJ and a decrease of 15% QoQ
– MOFSL: RS 718 Crore versus RS 611 Crore in Q1FY25
– Kotak -shares: RS 935 Crore, an increase of 53.2% yoj and 42.5% QoQ
EBITDA performance is divided. Although Kotak expects a sharp increase that is powered by strong income and economies of scale, Nuvama predicts a decrease, with reference to lower gross margins and competitive intensity. Most brokers agree that the margins remain under pressure due to the growing share of Zudio.
4) EBITDA -Marge
– Phillipcapital: 15.1%, Down 17 BPS Yoy and Down 86 BPS QoQ
– Nuvama: 11.7% (↓ 360 BPS Yoy of 15.3%)
– Mofsl: 15% in Q1FY26 versus 15.3% Q1FY25
– Kotak – Shares: 17.2, versus 193 BPS Yoy and 124 BPS QoQ
PC modeled 23 BPS Grossarge Contraction JoJ, 25% increase in employee costs JoJ and 18% increase in other costs (including rental costs) JoJ. It also expects that the operational margins with 17 BPS yoJ, mainly because of the gross margontraction, led by a higher Zudio mix of a higher Zudio -mix contract.
(Disclaimer: recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions of the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of economic times)
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