Tree then bust? BTC -eyes $ 175k for catastrophic decrease of 80%

Tl; Dr.

• Bitcoin can rise to $ 175k before he drops 70-80%, based on four previous market cycles.
• $ 4.9 T In decay options Today can bring sharp volatility to crypto and shares.
• Inverse main and shoulder pattern suggests that a $ 112k BTC strout could push to $ 130k.

Bitcoin Cycli Cycli show repeated deep drops

Bitcoin has seen major corrections after every Bull market cycle. Data assessed by market analyst Egrag Crypto shows that in 2011 the cryptocurrency fell around 93% compared to his peak. In 2013, the decrease was around 86%, followed by 84% in 2017 and around 77% in 2022 after the top of 2021.

The average drawing for these four cycles in particular comes around 85%. Based on this, Egrag suggest A possible decrease from 70% to 80% in the next bear market. This is not guaranteed, but is based on how Bitcoin has behaved more than a decade of price history.

According to Egrag’s market model, BTC can still have room to move higher before a large correction begins. The graph has shared projects A Possible peak About $ 175,000. This is again based on price structures that have formed in earlier cycles.

If it is reached high and a pullback of 70-80% follows as in previous cycles, Bitcoin could fall into the range of $ 35,000 to $ 52,000. Timing remains uncertain. The model shows that peaks in earlier cycles formed a few months after comparable patterns were developed.

$ 4.9 trillion in disturbances could move the markets

About $ 4.9 trillion in shares and ETF options have been set to expire today. This amount is more than 1.2 times the total crypto market capitalization. This large quarterly expiry date, often called Triple Witching, have a history of stimulating sharp movements in both traditional and crypto markets.

Crypto Rover noted That expiry date in the past this year was followed by clear market reactions. After the expiry of March 2025, Bitcoin fell by approximately 17%in the coming weeks. In the expiration date of June, BTC fell below $ 100,000 shortly thereafter. With the current outcome in the game, some traders will prepare for increased volatility in the coming days.

Nowadays $ 4.9 T stock and ETF options expire.

This is 1.2x the entire crypto market capitalization.

Historically, this expiry date cause heavy volatility.

March 2025 saw a crash weeks later, while June pushed $ BTC under $ 100k. pic.twitter.com/uox3di4fek

– Crypto Rover (@rovercrc) September 19, 2025

Technical pattern can indicate the short -term path

Ali Martinez shared A graph that shows a potential inverted head and shoulder formation on the 4-hour graph of Bitcoin. The left shoulder formed at the end of August, the head at the beginning of September, and the right shoulder can now develop.

He noted that Bitcoin could fall to around $ 112,000 – $ 113,000 before he returns. He added that “a rally up to $ 130,000” could follow if the price breaks above $ 117,950 neckline. The most important resistance levels to view in that case are $ 121,000, $ 125,000 and $ 127,000.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin traded around $ 116,800, with a light 24-hour drop and a 7-day win of 1%. The trade volume during the last day was $ 36.7 billion.