Transaction Analysis: Hits Fall on Jeff McNeil | Baseball prospectus

Translated by Carlos Marcano

The Mets are switching to the 2B/J Jeff McNeil and cash to the A’s for RHP Yordan Rodríguez.

Since McNeil’s late arrival in the Majors after a five-and-a-half year tour of the minor leagues, he has often been a valuable player. He is a versatile defender who, by the standards of our libertine times, is an extreme contact hitter with a first-class hitting tool. Because he has only mediocre power, his hitting ability is so strong and he avoids walks, he needs to hit .300 to be productive, and he has at times.

As we write in our Directory of 2024: “sometimes the hits fall and sometimes they don’t.”

The founder and manager of the Mets, Casey Stengelonce said of his openness to learning new things: “I don’t have to have my hair split with an ax to get a sense of the outside.” Current Mets owner Steve Cohen probably hasn’t split his hair with an ax either, but his wallet may have gotten a bit chopped up in recent years.

Given McNeil’s variability and his advanced baseball age (31) when he reached free agency, the club’s decision (whether driven by Cohen or then-general manager Billy Eppler) to give him a four-year, $50 million contract in January 2023 was an act of irrational “we have a bottomless pit of money” exuberance.

Readers of a certain age may remember that one of the life lessons the original taught was “The Ghostbusters(1984) was: “When someone asks you if you are a God, you say YES!” Likewise, if a 31-year-old player asks you to sign him to a lucrative extension and he’s not God (Ted Williamsmaybe, or Rickey Hendersonetc.), you say NO!

Since signing, McNeil has validated what you might call the “Metsbusters” line, hitting .253/.326/.389 in 407 games.

This winter’s dismantling isn’t necessarily evidence that Cohen has reneged on his previous largesse and no longer plans to run the team with the same “we can absorb our worst decisions by doubling up on talent” philosophy as the Dodgers, but rather it seems like a recognition of a new idea: despite the club’s recent investments in Juan Sotothis particular grille configuration has run its course. If you accept that, then it’s eminently reasonable for the Mets to give up the last $17.75 million plus hotel suite in travel expenses (minus the reported $5.75 million sent to the A’s) guaranteed to McNeil. If this is going to be a transition year, it doesn’t matter much that the deal leaves two-thirds of the team’s outfield unresolved in 2026, although one would be more optimistic about the rebuild ahead if Cohen and team president David Stearns had more fully committed to it and traded away some of the club’s collection of aging weapons.

If McNeil stays healthy (note his month-long absence in 2025 due to an oblique strain), he should give a starting A’s team an easy upgrade from their disastrous mix at second base in 2025. The second base crew – mainly Luis Urías and Zack Faith—combined to hit .199/.267/.283. It was the worst performance at the position in the Majors, so it’s a low bar for the old man to clear. He has added some home run power in recent years as he has gradually increased his launch angle, an approach that Sutter Health Park should reward.

As for Yordan Rodríguez, he pitched in the Dominican Summer League in 2025 at the age of 17, an age when most of us are still in high school. As was perhaps the case for all of us at the time, don’t look for it until you see it coming.