Transaction analysis: Cedric Mullins, far from home | Baseball prospectus

Translated by Carlos Marcano

Los St Carlo Mullins for one year and $7 million dollars.

A story in two quotes, both from April this year:

“There are guys on this team that we would like to have here longer than currently planned. It’s not automatic. It’s case by case. There are different players, different skill levels, different reps, different philosophies on how to deal with players at different age levels. We have some really good ones and on top of that we’ve had a very recent ownership change after a lengthy process during the rebuild. These guys [los dueños] They’re great, but they’re relatively new. “I can’t say much more than it’s something we want to do if it makes sense. We’re working on it and if it happens, we’ll talk about it.”

That’s Mike Elias, of course. A second quote, from Mullins’ agent, Robin Copeon how the Orioles had not yet offered an extension:

“I wish they would. He wishes they would.”

They didn’t do it. Mullins entered the year as a player with a certain skill level and posted a certain level of production: through the first month of the season, he hit .278/.412/.515, carrying the rest of the Orioles lineup for the month, like Paul Bäumer with Stanislaus Katczinsky. But Elias’ patience paid off for Elias, as the unique presence of Baltimore’s extensive rebuild collapsed under the weight, hitting just .198/.263/.355 the rest of the way, with a particularly gaping hole in his swing appearing after his deadline trade to the Mets. Stats are mixed on whether he can still cover center field, and DRC+ is skeptical about his approach at the plate, considering his walk rate a symptom of passivity.

Tampa Bay isn’t a terrible place, and $7 million isn’t a terrible salary. Maybe the coaches there will help him find something within himself, even if there isn’t much to optimize on the surface. He’s never hit the ball particularly hard, but he’s been pulling it through the air as much as possible. He can’t hit breaking balls, but that’s not because he’s being fooled; makes good enough contact with them, it’s just not good contact.

This is a confession for everyone involved. For the Rays, who are still in transition both in terms of ownership and contention, this is a new version of the signing. Danny Jansen: a player in a position of need, coming from a meager crop. It’s probably cheaper then Harrison Baderthe only other pure midfielder on the market, and will probably also be worse than Bader, but much more so in the first case than in the second. In short, it is an acceptable use of resources, whereas eight months ago, under different circumstances, it was considered not to be the case. It’s also a confession about Tampa’s current center fielder, the rookie Chandler Simpsonwhose aggressiveness at the plate combined poorly with hits that often didn’t leave the frame, and lightning-fast leg speed that was wasted on terrible defensive routes. It’s possible the pair could split playing time at center, but if so, it’s only because Tampa believes that, now that he’s 26 years old, it might be too late to fix some of Simpson’s crippling quirks.

For the Orioles, it’s a thoughtless admission. They plod along, consuming and discarding years of cost control like a locomotive consumes coal, with nowhere to go but forward on the track. Mullins leaves. Ryan Mountcastle He stays until he too leaves. Next year there will be guys on the team who want more time than currently planned, and that won’t be automatic. The process continues.

And for Mullins, it’s an acknowledgment that the 2021 season is becoming increasingly faint on the horizon as he approaches his 30s. There’s a fine line between earning a rebound deal and simply becoming a one-year contract; Joey Gallo He went through this transition painfully not so long ago. One day you wake up and realize: this is who you are. You still have the opportunity to grow, adapt, refine, but perhaps not reinvent yourself. You wish the extension had arrived, but you also wish you were the person who received it. You wish everything had worked out. And he did, but in a different way than you expected. There’s still a chance to make it a recovery deal in hindsight. There is still a chance to be a hero. That’s always there, until the end, and sometimes afterwards.

The Dodgers re-sign the INF Miguel Rojas for one year and $5.5 million.

In some ways, the Dodgers are what a child thinks it is like to be an adult. You arrive in winter season glory, ready for a nice, relaxing break like your parents’ after slowly going through the line to drop the kids off at school. Oh, they definitely still have things to do: everyone knows adults have things to do, they never stop talking about all the things they have to do. But you know they have nothing to complain about: they are adults. They can do whatever they want. So the Dodgers spend a good long month just messing around in the shed, or reading an old Agatha Christie novel, all those things adults pretend to like, and then showing up at the office and simply signing Miguel Rojas to a one-year, $5.5 million contract.

Why $5.5 million? Who cares, it sounds like a good number, too specific to feel arbitrary, not specific enough to feel like it’s being negotiated. He’s been making $5 million for years, so this is a nice little bonus, a thoughtful little gift that they happened to see. Why Rojas? Since the Dodgers like Rojas, he’ll be on the development staff in 2027 anyway, and it seems weird to have him pack all his stuff, and since they’re adults, no one can tell them what to do. Clearly, Chris Taylor has disappeared, and Austin Barnes is gone, and everyone had to grow up a little and give up a few childish things during that long, on-again, off-again summer of 2025. But the Dodgers have a guy who was an All-Star right fielder before he magically decided to become one of the best shortstops in the game, and they also have a backup middle infielder in Hye-seong Kim that 29 other general managers couldn’t be bothered to take out their wallets to check the price on. They don’t need Miguel Rojas. Except, you know, in Games 6 and 7 of the World Series, when they absolutely needed it. Most teams would say this is a thing of the past, that they can’t afford these types of expenses, with all the bills and all the kids asking for more money every year. But it’s the Dodgers. They can have as many treats as they want.

And of course, because these are the Dodgers, their vanity moves are just good moves. Rojas is turning 37, but he is a good player, even at an age when others are in complete decline. He doesn’t hit the ball hard, but he doesn’t have to. He prefers quantity of batted balls over quality, stealing base hits when others would strike out. His legs are worn out, but his hands and his jump are not, giving him a reach he really shouldn’t have. He couldn’t last 150 games, so it’s nice that the Dodgers don’t need him. The fact that they get all those leadership qualities they clearly love for free, plus a numerically justified contract, makes them the Dodgers. That, and the fact that they can drink beer and soda when the kids have to drink milk, which is completely unfair.