Transaction Analysis: Abridged Version of Reliever Summary | Baseball prospectus

Translated by Marco Gámez

Mets signs RHP Lucas Weaver for two years and $22 million dollars.

At this point you might be thinking that the Mets’ entire winter strategy wasn’t based on signing Yankees relievers who, according to superficial metrics, are finishing seasons with disappointing numbers. Of course, if you’re a Mets fan, the idea that there is no winter season strategy is probably on your mind. And if you’re a Yankees fan, you’re wondering if players can be signed this offseason instead of just seeing them leave (you forgot Amed Rosario j Ryan Yarbrough; you are… forgiven).

But this is another good signing for the Mets, who continue to ignore the panicked cries outside the stadium and make sensible additions. Weaver helps round out their bullpen, although they still need a few more arms, presumably relievers who haven’t played on the other side of town at some point. Jake cousins j Scott Efross They are still available. For his part, Weaver continued to throw two pitches above average, he said StuffProalthough it lost credit for its placement inside PitchPro. He also lost some velocity on his fastball and saw his strikeout rate drop as a result (to a still acceptable 25%). The placement is correctable and the fastball still buzzes around 95 miles per hour (153 km/h), which is enough to make the changeup Weaver throws work as a complement.

The real problem may be the Weaver’s cutter, which Bradley Woodrum identified in an excellent article from September. While most pitchers use the cutter to attack opponents’ hands, Weaver already has his changeup to neutralize lefties. Instead, he uses it against righties, and it’s just not good enough. Perhaps the Mets have an adjustment in mind — he’s already making changes in right-on-right situations with a standard deviation above average — but increasing that pace or transforming the cutter into something more akin to a slider could be on the table.

Regardless, even the 2025 version of Weaver is an upgrade from the current Mets reliever corps, and there’s still potential even if he never quite reaches the heights we see in 2024. PECOTA (park neutral) expects a DRA- of 85, something that the loyal fans of the Vlissingen district would certainly think positively about. With a relatively short term and a relatively moderate average annual value, this signing seems like a bargain.Craig Goldstein

Phillies sign RHP Brad Keller for two years and $22 million dollars.

It’s nice when teams just copy and paste contracts. Keller handled the transition to full-time reliever with aplomb, and the list of stats in which he didn’t set a new personal record is essentially limited to the wins category. He kept the same wide mix of pitches, but added three miles per hour (5 km per hour) of velocity in a one-inning role, pushing his fastball nearly to 97 mph (156 km per hour). That made a huge difference, and Keller’s 74 DRA made him one of the league’s top relief arms, suggesting he fully deserved his 2.07 ERA. A WHIP of 0.96 may not seem miraculous, but keep in mind that his career mark was almost half a point higher to start the season.

Keller isn’t cashing in like one of the league’s best relievers, especially considering he’s 30 years old, which puts him on the younger side of free agents. The Phillies seem to believe in Keller enough to push themselves all the way to the fourth tier of the luxury tax to land him, but it’s somewhat surprising that one of the league’s best relievers couldn’t get a little more last year. Given the uncertainty surrounding the right-hander — just two years ago he looked like a five-year-old’s drawing of what a bad pitcher could look like — there was a ceiling on this contract, but I admit it’s surprising that Keller’s agent couldn’t at least secure him an exit option if he performs this well in 2026.

Will Keller’s performance be repeated? There’s little point in looking at his starting numbers, given how hard he’s throwing now, or his previously meager strikeout rates, which at 27.2% last year set a new career high of 7.6 percentage points. The 10% career walk rate is more of a concern, and the 21.3% collapse that ended his time in Chicago looms large in the room. There’s plenty of room for Keller to be slightly worse and still be an extremely valuable reliever for Philadelphia. No one just knows where the floor is.–Ginny Searle

The Guardians sign the LD Shawn Armstrong for one year and $5.5 million dollars.

While Armstrong also posted an excellent earned run average last season, teams aren’t taking him lightly after he posted a 1.38 ERA with Tampa Bay in 2023 with numbers at least triple that. In each of the last three seasons he has produced a DRA between 90 and 100, likely a more realistic approximation of his skill level. That is of course worth something, just not in terms of money. Brad Kellerespecially when it looks like Armstrong is going to have an unfavorable year luck-wise. And if that trend changes, it may point toward a contract like Lucas Weaver.—Ginny Searle

The Reds sign the LHP Caleb Ferguson for one year and $4.5 million dollars.

“The Cincinnati Reds signed the left-handed pitcher Caleb Ferguson for one year and four and a half million dollars.” Think about those words. Imagine saying them out loud to anyone, in any context. To your wife, who comes home from her night shift, with dark circles under her eyes, her hair in disarray and the first gray streaks appearing. He tells you about his day, about the boy who had a freak sea accident, how he almost bled to death, but they managed to overcome the complications and give him enough blood to get through it. You listen to her nod. Then you say, “The Cincinnati Reds have signed left-handed pitcher Caleb Ferguson to a one-year contract worth $4.5 million.” Your son says he’s starting to tinker with writing a song. That’s great; He always struggled with guitar lessons, but maybe it finally clicked. Playing, it sounds awful, sure, but that doesn’t matter. But then it ends. “You seem distracted ((parental nickname of choice),” he says. “Sorry,” you reply, pulling yourself out of your reverie. “I was listening. Sounds great. I really like how you played the second string. But I couldn’t stop thinking about how the Cincinnati Reds signed left-handed pitcher Caleb Ferguson to a one-year deal worth $4.5 million.”

The idea of ​​finite memory is a bit terrifying: that every new idea, every new memory, forces something out. Your brain doesn’t work that way, you tell yourself, but you’re afraid to look it up because it might be true and you’d lose one of your victories. Dwight Gooden in 1984, just to find out. If so, and it isn’t, but if it was, I’m sorry. Because the Cincinnati Reds signed left-handed pitcher Caleb Ferguson to a one-year, four-and-a-half million dollar deal.–Patrick Dubuque