Trading WTA Limoges Challenger, Kalinina V Jacquemot | TradeShark Betfair Tennis Trading

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WTA Limoges Challenger Final
Kalinin in Jacquemot
Reliability assessment

Match prediction: Kalinina in 3 sets.

The actual starting price for Kalinina was 1.75

SETTING 1
Kalinina served first. There were four twos, but she held on. Jacquemot then held on at 30 after trailing 15-30.

In the next game Kalinina was broken. Her price went to 2.74. At the breakpoint, Jacquemot’s rate was 1.76. My target price for laying was 1.65. I put Jacquemot at 1.58 after the break.

Jacquemot didn’t have an easy time in the next game. There were 5 deuces and she faced a break point. I removed half my liability at 1.87 at the breakpoint. Jacquemot held on and led 3-1. The next game was a hold-to-15 for Kalinina.

Jacquemot served next. She was broken from 40-15 years old. At the break point, Jacquemot’s rate was 1.90. Since I had already removed some of the liability at 1.87, I waited to see if she would be broken. After the break I removed most of the liability at 1.87 on Kalinina’s ladder (Jacquemot was at 2.14).

Kalinina then served at 3-3. It was another tough service game and she faced and saved two break points before holding on. In the next game Jacquemot was broken to 30. Kalinina successfully served out the set to 15.

The statistics in the first set favored Kalinina, although she had to work hard in some of her service games. Jacquemot had the crowd behind him and my pre-match assessment suggested an exciting match. Jacquemot would serve first in the 2nd set. She was broken in her last two service games, so I decided to let her play her service game before laying Kalinina. Kalinina was priced at 1.27 after the first set.

SETTING 2
After the first set I had a big green one on Kalinina and a little red one on Jacquemot. I didn’t change that after the set because there was a chance that Jacquemot would have a hard time in the first game of set 2.

Jacquemot was broken to 15. Kalinina was now a set and a break ahead. An excellent moment to go against the protagonist. As a bonus, I had the green from the first set, so a lay from Kalinina would be risk-free. I put her at 1.13. If Jacquemot had been a little better in the first set, I would have used more of my first set of green for the lay. I left a decent gain on Kalinina, just in case she ran away with the second set.

Kalinina held at 15 in the next game. Jacquemot conceded a break point in the third game, but managed to hold on to it. Her first hold in 4 service games. Kalinina was subsequently broken. She saved one break point, but not the second. The score was now 2-2. Kalinina was now at 1.26.

The next 4 games were held without break points. The score was 4-4. Kalinina was now at 1.24.

If the score becomes 4-4, after a lay by the winner of the first set, I often drop out. That’s usually when I’ve been sleeping and there haven’t been any breaks. In this case there were 2 breaks. I had laid without risk on a set and a break, so I would have increased my winnings if I had hedged at 4-4. Jacquemot had improved her statistics from the first set. Kalinina’s first serve percentage had dropped. I decided to keep my position. In the pre-match assessment I had thought there was a good chance of 3 sets.

Jacquemot easily held the 15 and led 5-4. In the next game Kalinina fell behind 0-40. She saved the first break point, but Jacquemot took the second and won the set. I hedged evenly at 1.91 on Kalinina’s ladder.

SETTING 3
The 3rd set was very exciting. In the first seven games, neither player was even brought to deuce.

Kalinina served at 3-4. She fell behind 30-40 but saved the break point. After 3 deuces she was hit with another break point and was broken. Jacquemot would serve for the title. She choked while serving for the semifinal match, although she was successful on her second attempt. I favored Kalinina before the match and I had some profit to keep a lay risk free. I had to lay Jacquemot.

I put Jacquemot at 1.12. She was broken to 15. Kalinina held on to 15 to reach 5-5. Jacquemot was now at 2.10. I moved a little green to Jacquemot by placing Kalinina at 1.90. This gave me a nice green on Jacquemot and a VERY nice green on Kalinina.

Jacquemot was broken to 30 in the next game! Obviously I was a bit frustrated because I had moved some green to Jacquemot just before that match, but I was still in a very good position. Kalinina served the set and the match with ease.

Calculation of approximately 6-3, 4-6, 7-5.