Almost the end of the first week of the 2026 season. I’m not counting the United Cup. Did I already say that?
New Year’s Eve was quieter than expected. My wife worked on New Year’s Day, so went to bed around 7:30. The fireworks had started at 5pm so myself and the dogs were lying on the carpet. I bought Molly one of those firework jackets. They need to calm the dog down by ‘cuddling’ it. I got one for Charlie too, but it was too tight on his fat ass. He only had a snood on to block out some of the sound. I don’t think it blocks the sound, but it does distract him a bit. I focused on Charlie. He barks at the sound of fireworks (including the doorbell, children on the street, cats, fox sounds, etc.) and his barking stresses Molly out.
So he stood on his side next to me while his bets were dropped. It’s the first time I’ve tried this to help with fireworks. I usually try to calm him down when he reacts. He likes ab exercises and comes to watch me one evening. “What do you want? A pee? Water? A treat?”. No response. “Would you like a belly massage?” He falls on his side with his leg in the air. So we watched TV most of the evening. He barely responded. The real surprise was that Molly was asleep even as the big bang sounded. She usually lies down and trembles when loud noises are heard.
In fact, from midnight until 1am, when most of the fireworks stopped, they were both asleep!
The first few weeks of the season can be difficult to predict. The Australian Open is just around the corner, so any player with a sprain or minor injury is not at risk of missing the Major. This time of year I often get up early to trade, rather than staying up all night. I used to work full night shifts. I can take care of the occasion all evening (my wife may disagree), but after a few I’m like a zombie. I’m not 25 anymore!
After the first night of competition, I opened my phone to check some results. I just hoped I hadn’t gotten them all wrong! Of the matches played at the time, most went more or less as expected. The week didn’t quite go the same way, but the surprises were only slightly more frequent than a normal mid-season week.
This week we avoided most of the snow. It started snowing around 6pm on Thursday after raining most of the day. Apparently it was still snowing at 11pm. By morning it was raining again and most of the snow had disappeared from the road. By noon all the snow had melted.
I’m running a trial/experiment to find a selection process that can be automated for regular betting. I look at combinations of metrics to see which ones produce the best results. The first few days were a challenge. The process produced good picks, but then I had to find a value bet on that player. I usually went with handicaps. Over the past few days I have renewed my distaste for handicap betting!
When I put money on a player, I want him to have the same goal as me, which is for him to win. It doesn’t really matter to a player whether he takes a set with a single break or a double break, but that difference affects a handicap bet. It doesn’t help that only one handicap option had money in the market on Betfair. So you might want to take the bet at -3.5 games, but all the money is at -2.5 games.
So after going through the results so far, I’ve seen a combination of four stats that has only resulted in one loss so far. To get the value I use Betfair “Keep” betting so the bet can be placed and fulfilled before the match. I’ll see how that goes. The first was this morning. Medvedev at 1.70. The price struck when he went to Michelsen with bad luck. As I write this, he is leading 5-3 in the first set. There is still plenty of time before things go wrong.
I’ll see you later.
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