Tour Confidential: Tiger’s Masters Odds, West Coast Swing Points, Rahms Decision

Check-in every week for the unfiltered opinions of our writers and editors as they break down the hottest topics in sports and join the conversation by tweeting us at @golf_com. This week we discuss Tiger Woods’ chances of playing in the Masters, Jon Rahm’s curious decision and the takeaways from the PGA Tour’s West Coast Swing.

Tiger Woods was on site and even in the TV booth as host for this week’s Genesis Invitational. Tiger spoke on several topics and somewhat surprisingly said there is still a chance he will play the 2026 Masters. Woods, 50, has not played since the 2024 Open Championship as he recovers from several injuries. But will you buy this? What do you think are the realistic chances of him playing at Augusta National? Is there a percentage chance you would gamble on it?

Josh Sens, senior writer (@joshssens): The last odds I saw from people making a living at it were 2-to-1. That seems reasonable. It wouldn’t be a shock to see him try. But I’d be a little surprised if he made the cut and went for a run.

James Colgan, news and features editor (@jamescolgan26): Based on his attitude at Riviera, I rate him as having a 61.25 percent chance of playing. I’m not sure he would entertain [gulps] the Champions Tour as a legitimate competitive option, unless he thought it meant he might be able to USE the Champions Tour to start somewhere else. Like at Augusta National, for example.

Josh Schrock, news editor (@Schrock_And_Awe): I understand Tiger believes there’s a chance he can play, and he’s going to try to push it to tee off at Augusta. I would still keep it around 40%. He said he hits full shots, but then hit the brakes when Nantz said he could hit the kind of 7-wood that Jacob Bridgeman hit in 11 on Saturday. He is a maniacal competitor and wants to play. But the body must be allowed to go where the mind wants, and it is unclear where his body is in the rehabilitation process.

Speaking of those other topics Tiger touched on, what did he say last week that was most interesting to you?

Feeling: I wasn’t exactly shocked when I heard it, but I would say I raised my eyebrows when he said he hadn’t decided on a Ryder Cup captaincy yet. Deep down, you and I know he’s going to be the captain. And I think he knows it too. Also: the idea that riding in the Champions Tour appeals to him. Could you ever imagine a young Tiger saying that?

Colgan: I was shocked to hear Tiger admit that the Tour is considering moving at least one of the two major early-season PGA Tour events (Pebble Beach and Riviera) to August to accommodate the new schedule. That change would certainly solve the California rain problem the Tour is currently experiencing in February, but I wonder if it would help make the “Playoffs” FEEL bigger as well. I know each of these events feels bigger now, solely as a proxy of their golf courses. I am in favor.

Schrock: I agree with James, but I also really enjoyed Tiger becoming a bit more introspective now that he’s 50. He spoke about his determination in his work for the FCC because he wants part of his legacy to be creating a Tour that allows the next Tigers to thrive. Cool to see how he peels back a layer and artfully tackles competitive mortality.

On Sunday at Riviera, Woods watched Jacob Bridgeman take a six-shot lead to beat Rory McIlroy and Kurt Kitayama by one to win for the first time on the PGA Tour. Bridgeman, 26, didn’t necessarily come out of nowhere — he’s been in the top 20 in all four of his previous starts this season — but what is it about his play that has impressed you the most during this run? Has he shown you enough to convince you that this isn’t a fluke?

Feeling: A fluke is when I compress an iron shot. Bridgeman is no fluke. A strong college career at a top golf program (Clemson). Some top 5’s last year. In the penultimate group last week at Pebble. There aren’t many Tiger career arcs out there. This is how most talented young players progress to their first victory. He was impressive across the board this week. I didn’t find a bunker on the green side until Sunday the 16th. Dead-eye putting and approaches. But I was especially struck by his attitude at the home game. McIlroy looking for birdie on 12 might have confused anyone less calm. Bridgeman went about his business as usual.

Colgan: I have to admit that around the time it took him about 43 hours to play the ocean’s final hole at Pebble Beach last week, I may have allowed myself some thoughts about Jacob Bridgeman’s credibility as a competitor on the PGA Tour. I may have even suggested he play the last hole naked as penance for his poor pace. His win this week erased those feelings and replaced them with a sense that he might just be the Tour’s next JJ Spaun – a man who felt like he came out of nowhere when he started winning… but we probably should have seen that coming all along.

Schrock: I think his composure on Sunday, especially when the seven-shot lead started to dwindle, was incredibly impressive. I thought when Rory drilled that bunker shot on 12 that things were going to start moving quickly and he might unravel. But he was impressively cool under pressure. Lest we forget, he made the Tour Championship last year and had to play well with Rory in the BMW to get his ticket to East Lake. He’s been playing good golf for a while now, and I won’t be surprised if he starts to become more of a fixture on the leaderboard.

Eight DP World Tour members were granted parole to play LIV Golf events this year, even though Jon Rahm did not sign up. What does this mean, big picture?

Feeling: A future LIV-DP merger. The DP World Tour needs money. The Saudis have that. LIV needs more competitive juice. The DP World Tour could help with that.

Colgan: I’m really confused by this decision. Josh’s merger idea aside, Rahm seems to be betting he’s important enough to earn a major Ryder Cup exception. The reality is that he IS, especially if you ask his RC teammates. But it’s one thing to rally the support of Luke Donald… and quite another to staunchly oppose a major tour and ask for special status. He knows the landscape better than I do, and he certainly wants to be in Ireland in ’27. But I’d love to hear his explanation!

Schrock: Frankly, it’s a fascinating move by Rahm. His friend and teammate, Tyrrell Hatton, who was with him in the trial, paid the fine and bowed out. So now Rahm, who paid so many millions up front to join LIV, is betting that they will make a rule that will allow him to be part of the Ryder Cup team without being a member of the DP World Tour, rather than just compromise and pay the fines. It feels like it’s a decision that could cost Rahm things that money can’t buy. I feel like the DP World Tour has offered a reasonable olive branch, and I don’t see how this would work out in Rahm’s favor outside of a merger. Is he important enough to the team to warrant a special waiver? Naturally. But you already have Rory McIlroy, the leader of that team, saying he has to pay the fine. Hatton, who was standing by him, paid his fines. I’m also fascinated to hear his explanation and see where this goes.

Goodbye, West Coast Swing, and hello, Florida. What have you learned over the past two months on the PGA Tour?

Feeling: That the only way Scottie Scheffler doesn’t win most starts is if he gives the field a lead on the first lap. It’s been a strange few weeks watching him struggle out of the gate.

Colgan: Scottie is still the best there is…but the first round hiccup is weird. Xander Schauffele is trending again – that’s nice! And welcome back, Collin Morikawa! Golf is more fun when he’s in the conversation.

Schrock: I’m enjoying the Scottie spots guys, a round in progress. It’s a nice wrinkle and further illustrates the divide between him and everyone else. Even though I didn’t win, I think Rory’s game is in a really good place as we head towards Florida and the Masters. He made a ton of birdies at Pebble, but hit a few in the ocean. There was no ocean at Riviera, so the large numbers disappeared. Xander is trending, and Jordan Spieth believes he has regained his putting magic, which he theorizes could spill over into the rest of his game. The PGA Tour is in a good place with API and the players on deck.