BitMine Chairman and Fundstrat CIO Tom Lee appears to have backed away from his $250,000 target for crypto market leader Bitcoin (BTC).
Speaking in one recent interview Speaking to CNBC, Lee said that “it is still very likely that Bitcoin will be above $100,000 before the end of the year.” He added that the crypto will “may even” reach a new all-time high (ATH) before the end of 2025.
The first time Lee hasn’t predicted $250,000 for Bitcoin this year
The recent interview appears to be the first time that Lee has not stuck to his bullish prediction that the price of BTC would reach $250,000 before the end of the year. He had initially put forward this price target earlier in 2024.
Lee continued to reiterate his $250,000 price target for BTC until early October, when the largest cryptocurrency by market cap set a new ATH above $126,000. However, a record liquidation that wiped $19 billion from the market just days after reaching this peak appears to have prompted Lee to revise his year-end target.
Since that liquidation, the price of BTC has been in a persistent downward trend. Data from CoinMarketCap shows that Bitcoin has plummeted by more than 19% in the past month. The crypto king is also more than 27% lower than the ATH it set in the first week of October.
The price development of BTC over the past month (Source: CoinMarketCap)
During the downtrend, BTC had fallen below the psychological level of $100,000 and even below $90,000. However, the crypto rebounded by more than 4% over the past 24 hours, trading back above the $90K level at $91,318.66 at 2:27 a.m. EST.
BTC’s strongest days are still ahead
Although Lee has seemingly lowered his year-end target for BTC, he still believes that Bitcoin’s “best days will be here” before 2025 comes to an end.
Lee pointed out that Bitcoin tends to make most of its gains over a small number of trading sessions per year. He then noted that the asset typically “comes into motion” in just ten days a year.
That idea is widely shared among analysts and executives in the market. Among them is Hunter Horsely, CEO of Bitwise, who said in February 2024 that while investors cannot predict when BTC will have its strong days a year from now, missing BTC’s best ten days historically means missing almost all of its returns.
It is difficult to choose the perfect time to buy Bitcoin.
Yesterday is a memory.
A fantastic analysis of @fundstrat below illustrates this.
TLDR: If you miss Bitcoin’s 10 best days every year, you’re missing all the returns. And you don’t know when those days will be.… pic.twitter.com/vulIAapQX9
— Hunter Horsley (@HHorsley) February 28, 2024
Looking at BTC’s performance in 2024 supports this statement. Last year, the crypto’s strongest 10 days delivered a combined return of 52%, while the remaining 355% days generated an average return of -15%.
Lee’s predictions have fallen short before
If Bitcoin’s best days don’t come before the end of the year or if BTC doesn’t break above $100,000, it won’t be the first time one of Lee’s predictions falls short.
In early 2018, Lee predicted that Bitcoin could rise to $125,000 by 2022, but he was off by about three years as BTC only reached this level in October this year.
However, he has also made some accurate decisions over the years. One of these was in July 2017, when he predicted that Bitcoin could reach a value of $20,000 in a base case in 2022, and a potential high of $55,000 over the same period in a more bullish case.
Bitcoin eventually rose to $20,000 in December 2020 and $55,000 in March 2021.
Bullish signals appear on BTC’s daily chart
Bullish technical flags have appeared on BTC’s daily chart, which could lead to a year-end rally if traders persevere.
Daily chart for WBTC/USD (Source: GeckoTerminal)
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line recently crossed above the MACD signal line, indicating that momentum has shifted from bearish to bullish. Buying power is also increasing, as evidenced by the increase in Relative Strength Index (RSI) values.
BTC could therefore gain the support needed to overcome the $94K resistance level and reach $105K soon. However, a rejection could lead to a drop to $82.6K.
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