Business leaders today are stuck between a rock and a hard place. No one can watch events unfold on the streets of Minnesota and elsewhere without being moved in some way. At the same time, they have a fiduciary responsibility to act in the best interests of their stakeholders, regardless of their personal feelings.
I know this dilemma because I have experienced it myself. In 2004, I headed Ukraine’s leading news organization during World War II Orange Revolutionthe third in a series of nonviolent uprisings known as the color revolutions which overwhelmed autocrats in Serbia and then the Georgian Republic before arriving in Kiev.
As I explained in my book, Cascadesthese things follow a specific pattern of contagion, adoption and defection, driven by networks. Ultimately, the non-linear nature of network cascades overwhelms regimes and forces institutions to take action. Now that pattern is unfolding here, and for business leaders, it’s no longer something to ignore.
- Contagion: How Movements Learn, Adapt, and Spread
2004 was an election year in Ukraine, so politics were in the air. We all saw the campaigns taking off, with ads flying and rallies being held. But from my vantage point within a news operation, I also started hearing about a youth group, called Porathat organized students and activists against the regime.
But its real origins started even earlier, in a café in Belgrade in 1998. It was there that a small group of five activists met and founded the youth group Otpor. Their efforts got a boost from a little-known academic Gene Sharpwho had developed nonviolent methods to overthrow authoritarian regimes and the Albert Einstein Institute to support activists around the world.
The Otpor activists would lead the overthrow of the Serbian strongman Slobodan Milosevic. Shortly afterwards, West Wing star Martin Sheen would tell A hit documentary about the events, and activists from other Eastern European countries began reaching out to learn how the Serbs were applying Sharp’s methods. In 2003, President Eduard Shevardnadze was overthrown during the Rose Revolution in Georgia. In the spring of 2004, Ukrainian Pora activists traveled to Serbia to receive training to lay the groundwork for the events I witnessed during the Orange Revolution.
We could see a similar process taking place in Minnesota and beyond. As federal agents began to infiltrate the community, activist networks emerged first established in the wake of the murder of George Floyd were activated. They began organizing to protect their communities from ICE and CBP patrols, learning and honing their methods along the way.
As other communities begin to prepare for ICE and CBP activities, activists across the country are watching and learning. Ordinary Americans are taking training — online and in person — that conveys what was learned in Minnesota: how to organize, how to direct activists and how to deal with federal officers on the ground.
2. Adoption: when participation becomes the standard
We are a product of our environment. Decades of research indicate that we are inclined to do so conform on the opinions and behavior of those around us, and this effect extends to three degrees of relationships. So not only do our friends’ friends have a big influence on us, but their friends – people we don’t even know – also influence what we think and do.
Yet the reverse is also true. The people around us usually do fairly ordinary things, like going to work, taking the kids to soccer practice, and cooking dinner. Most people who don’t actively resist agents of the state have little idea how to go about it. For the most part, we are trapped in mundane, ordinary lives and resist significantly changing our habits, but that can change quickly.
In a very influential Paper from 1978 on resistance thresholdssociologist Mark Granovetter showed how even small clusters of individuals, with low barriers to adoption, can influence people with greater resistance. Once these come on board, they start influencing others as well. It’s a pattern we see again and again: small groups, loosely connectedbut united by a common purpose are the drivers of transformational change through network cascades.
We can see those same patterns unfolding in America today. Ordinary people, shocked by the actions of ICE and CBP patrols, have joined activists in opposing the raids. As they do so, they tell their friends and neighbors, some of whom join in. As they do, their actions influence others who are a little more reluctant, and as they join in, the momentum builds even more.
I experienced this directly during the Orange Revolution. In the spring of 2004 I was aware of the demonstrations, but I did not participate. As a foreigner I wasn’t sure if this was my place. But then my wife’s friends started going and invited my wife. Once she joined in, I joined in and others joined me. The numbers became overwhelming and the regime fell.
- Waste: when silence is no longer safe
At this point many readers will begin to notice a problem. Haven’t other movements, like #Occupy and Black Lives Matter, followed the exact same patterns and failed to achieve their goals? The answer is of course a resounding yes. The presence of a network cascade is necessary, but not sufficient, to bring about change. You need institutions for that.
Martin Luther King Jr. not only organized marches and boycotts. He used the power of mobilization to influence politicians like Lyndon Johnson. In much the same way, Solidarity activists in Poland did not just organize strikes. They actively involved the Catholic Church. Early in the color revolutions, activists learned that international institutions could be powerful allies and could leverage that support successfully.
This is perhaps the most glaring vulnerability for the current administration. In the beginning it focused on institutions, such as law firms and universities, but this was done in a very cumbersome way. key targets have successfully fought back. Others, like senators Thom Tillis And Bill Cassidyhave opposed ICE and CBP tactics. Chris Madel, a Republican candidate for governor of Minnesota, ended his campaign in protest.
Yet, despite widely reported misgivings, business leaders have largely postponed it, as former CEOs would like Reid HoffmanBill George and Robert Rubin have urged them to do their part. However, good business management requires more than just running a business and managing a balance sheet. It requires you to be effective leaders of your business community.
Anticipating what comes next
I remember attending a group dinner in Kiev in late 2007 and sitting across from a Sony Ericsson executive who confidently told me that the launch of the iPhone earlier that year had yet to impact his company’s revenue. But the same pattern of contagion, adoption and defection would soon manifest itself and Sony Ericsson would lose relevance and eventually be absorbed, while the cascade of smartphones would reshape the entire industry.
Once a cascade starts, it takes on a life of its own.
Business leaders in America today face a similar dilemma. Their first responsibility is to their stakeholders, regardless of their personal feelings. But among the millions taking to the streets are employees, customers, shareholders and their family members. Hoping that you can stay on the fence is dangerously naive. It’s only a matter of time before someone in your business community is affected by ICE and CBP violence: an arrest, assault, pepper spray – or worse.
Now is the time to act. If Renee Good or Alex Pretti were among your people or their children, what would you do for them and their families? What legal, medical or psychological support will they and their colleagues need? You must prepare for that possibility now.
In much the same way, you should start auditing your partners and suppliers. Make sure the people you do business with share your values and those of your stakeholders. If they support or engage in activities that could harm your business community, don’t wait for an incident. Cut the ties.
Above all, you need to be explicit about your values and make sure you live them. That does not mean that you have to take a political position, but it does mean that you have to be clear where you stand. As someone who has had to face the challenge of running a business during a revolution, I can tell you from experience that one day you will want to look back on this time, think about what you said and did, and be proud of what you did.
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