Time to update your priorities: natural gas is expensive

When fracking spread across our country in the early 2000s, it ushered in an era of cheap gas and fundamentally changed the American energy landscape. Gas has toppled coal to become the dominant source of electricity generation in the country – and the United States has become so the world’s largest natural gas producer.

However, we have become so accustomed to the idea of ​​cheap natural gas that we fail to reassess whether that story is still true. The data increasingly tells us that this is not the case – we are now the largest natural gas exporter in the world and natural gas plants are much more expensive to build – forcing Americans to pay more for energy. That means we risk locking ourselves into expensive decisions with decades-long consequences.

The fracking revolution started almost twenty years ago; today’s reality is different. If government officials and utility executives still think we are in the era of cheap natural gas, their decisions will be driven by outdated knowledge, and they will not be able to combat rising energy prices if they invest in the wrong technology.

View of Lusk’s fracking facility in Scenery Hill, Pennsylvania, on October 22, 2020. – There are many complexities surrounding the fracking debate at the center of the 2020 U.S. presidential election, even as some residents of the country’s hardest-hit region have soured on an industry that had promised an economic revival. (Photo by NICHOLAS KAMM/AFP) (Photo by NICHOLAS KAMM/AFP via Getty Images)

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Natural gas prices are facing upward pressure on two fronts

The rising demand for electricity in data centers has led utilities to scramble to add new sources of electricity to the grid. In places like Virginiaground-zero for the data center wave and home to roughly 20% of the world’s data centers, the gas industry is shouting from the rooftops that gas is needed to meet this new demand while keeping costs down.

That premise is incorrect on several levels.

First, it is effectively impossible to build a new gas-fired power plant by the end of this decade. Gas turbine manufacturers such as GE Vernova, Siemens Energy and Mitsubishi scaled back their production capacities years ago as new turbines were ordered were few and far between. As a result, power producers trying to purchase new turbines face wait times of five to seven years.

Second, much of the workforce that built the massive gas infrastructure growth of the 2000s and 2010s has retired or moved to other industries. causing a major labor shortage. If utilities want to build a new gas plant, it will be years before they can get the equipment, and even then it will be difficult to find workers to build it – but we need the power now, not in 2030. That means new gas-fired power plants will come. this time considerably more expensive.

NextEra CEO John Ketchum says building a new gas-fired power plant today would cost three times as much as the last facility the utility built, in 2022.

And that’s only half the story: once the facility is built, you need fuel to keep it running. It turns out that it is now also considerably more expensive.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts natural gas prices to rise 14% in 2026, following a 59% year-over-year increase from 2024 to 2025. EIA attributes rising prices to increased demand due to rising liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and flat production capabilities.

‘Gas will only become more expensive in the future’ said Tyson Slocum, director of Public Citizen’s energy program. “You can build more pipelines in Virginia or wherever, but that extra natural gas will still be competing with people in Berlin and Beijing for access to American gas.”

“LNG ties us more to global markets that pay more than we pay for gas,” said Joshua Rhodesa research scientist at the University of Texas, Austin. “That should put more upward pressure on gas.”

PORT ARTHUR, TEXAS – FEBRUARY 10: An aerial view of a cargo ship passing the Cheniere Energy liquefied natural gas plant on February 10, 2025 in Port Arthur, Texas. China, the world’s largest importer of liquefied natural gas, has announced it will impose a 15% tariff on US liquefied natural gas in retaliation for President Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on Chinese commodities. (Photo by Brandon Bell/Getty Images)

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Like any other commodity sold around the world, gas companies look for the most expensive markets. These companies say American natural gas increases our domestic energy security, but they don’t care about their home heating bills, they just want to make the highest possible profit – even if that means selling our gas to countries like China.

And yet, Energy Minister Chris Wright wants to double LNG exports within five years, only to double again. LNG exports have already increased by 25% between 2024 and 2025.

Expensive natural gas prices hit households with a double blow

Because natural gas is the largest source of electricity generation in the US, consumers are forced to pay higher electricity bills as the fuel becomes more expensive. In fact, every region of the country has seen this electricity prices rise during the past three years.

Electricity prices have increased in every region of the country.

US Energy Information Administration

Wholesale electricity prices increased by 23% in 2025, and EIA predicts they will rise another 8.6% in 2026. “Natural gas prices are generally the largest determinant of energy prices,” EIA said.

But it’s not just electric bills that are causing sticker shock: The majority of homes in the U.S. use natural gas to heat them, so as gas prices rise, so will home heating costs. EIA is indeed that to predict that heating costs for homes will increase next year. Data from the Federal Reserve shows that the retail gas company has done so increased 11% almost a record high in the past year. That means more expensive home heating bills for families this winter, potentially fueling energy needs 8% increase in the heating costs for homes expected this year.

Americans are already struggling to pay their energy bills – 1 in 20 households have energy debt high enough to be sent to a collection agency, and the average monthly energy bill has risen 35% since 2022. according to a recent report.

Fortunately, rapidly growing wind, solar and storage systems can help control costs and can be quickly deployed to meet growing electricity demand. Wind and solar energy are the cheapest sources of new electricityAnd they have become exponentially cheaper over the past decade – 91% of new renewable energy projects commissioned last year were more affordable than new fossil fuels, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency.

And renewables and battery storage are essentially the only new electricity sources currently being added to the U.S. grid, comprising more than 90% of new capacity in the United States. 2025 And 2024. The truth is, states with the highest levels of wind and solar generation include Iowa, Oklahoma and New Mexico have had the lowest energy bill increases in America, according to research by Energy Innovation.

If policymakers rely on natural gas as a solution to the energy affordability crisis, they will fail to protect American households and businesses from higher energy prices.