This is why VanEck says Bitcoin could reach $2.9 million by 2050

VanEck says Bitcoin could reach $2.9 million by 2050 if it captures a share of trading transactions and reserves.

Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of digital assets research, said Bitcoin could reach a valuation of nearly $2.9 million by 2050 under the company’s long-term base case.

This projection is driven by the adoption of BTC as a settlement currency for 5% to 10% of global trade and its emergence as a reserve asset comprising 2.5% of central banks’ balance sheets.

VanEck’s bold long-term call

In a note detailing VanEck’s 25-year capital market assumptions, Sigel says projected a compound annual growth rate of 15% for Bitcoin between 2026 and 2050, because he based the asset’s long-term value on structural monetary adoption rather than short-term price cycles.

The analysis treats Bitcoin as a non-sovereign monetary asset whose valuation cannot be captured by traditional equity-based models, such as discounted cash flow or price-to-earnings ratios. Instead, VanEck based this analysis on BTC’s potential penetration into two addressable markets, namely global trade settlement and central bank official reserves.

Based on these assumptions, the asset manager’s base case results in a price of $2.9 million per BTC in 2050, using a base price of approximately $88,000 on December 31, 2025 solely to calculate implied growth rates. VanEck also presented alternative scenarios to frame risks.

In a bear case, where adoption stagnates and Bitcoin fails to meaningfully penetrate trade deals or reserve assets, the firm estimated a compound annual growth rate of 2% and a price of about $130,000 in 2050. At the top, VanEck described a bull-case scenario in which Bitcoin accounts for 20% of international trade and 10% of domestic GDP. In this scenario, BTC’s price would reach approximately $53.4 million, implying an annualized return of 29% and requiring it to match or exceed gold’s role as a global reserve.

Vulnerable market conditions

While VanEck focuses on multi-decade adoption scenarios, the short-term market structure tells a different story. For example, Matrixport stated that Bitcoin’s 2026 outlook is less about a new cycle and more about “tactical” trading. The company explained that crypto assets have entered a materially different regime than previous early cycle upswings, and that broader structural indicators still look unfavorable for a bull market, despite some improving technical signals.

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Declining volumes, weaker capital inflows and historical behavior following a break below the one-year moving average point to a more selective and challenging environment going forward. On-chain data further confirms this picture, showing that large, experienced holders are steadily distributing supply, while the growth of new addresses and inflows of realized capitalizations remain subdued, indicating limited new capital and low participation from new investors.