Let’s take a look at why the ongoing selloff in Shopify stock could be a buying opportunity.
Shopify reported strong Black Friday numbers
During Shopify’s December 2025 investor conference presentations, Chief Financial Officer Jeff Hoffmeister and Head of Investor Relations Carrie Gillard walked through a company that’s firing on multiple cylinders.
Shopify merchants generated $14.6 billion in sales over the Black Friday and Cyber Monday weekend, up 27% year-over-year and 24% at constant exchange rates.
Carrie Gillard noted at the UBS Global Technology and AI Conference that just three years ago, in 2022, Shopify generated $7.5 billion in the same weekend. Turnover has actually doubled in three years.
What makes Shopify attractive as a perennial holdout is the stacking of multiple growth engines all contributing at the same time.
- International growth remains a powerhouse.
- Europe is growing between the high 30s and low 40s, Gillard said.
- Growth there is balanced between existing and new merchants, indicating that the cohorts remain strong.
- The business activities continue to grow. According to company information, Shopify now wins about four out of 10 business deals.
- Recent wins include Estee Lauder And Canada Goose.
Hoffmeister explained at the Nasdaq Investor Conference that most corporate customers do not immediately migrate their entire business.
They can start with payments only or Shop Pay, and then gradually expand. This creates a multi-year stack function where each business customer becomes more valuable over time.
Payment penetration still has room
Shopify Payments now penetrates 65% of the gross merchandise volume flowing through the platform. In North America that number is much higher.
The Canadian tech stock just launched payments in 15 additional countries, mostly in Europe. As these markets mature, payment penetration should increase, creating a natural tailwind to raise interest rates.
Gillard noted that there is no reason why international markets cannot eventually achieve the same penetration levels as North America. That’s years of runway.
The purple Shop Pay button is now used in 67% of transactions, and international growth is even faster than that figure suggests.
In business sales conversations, Shop Pay consistently emerges as a differentiating factor. Expedited checkout ensures higher conversion rates, which is critical for merchants looking to turn browsers into buyers.
But Shop Pay goes further than just checking out. It connects to the Shop app, where consumers can track orders from multiple Shopify sellers in one place. Only Shopify merchants get access to this ecosystem.
Shopify has also positioned itself as the infrastructure layer for Agentic commerce – the idea that AI agents shop on behalf of consumers.
The company put together its product catalog more than two years ago especially for this moment. When large language models search for products, the Shopify catalog becomes the authoritative source of truth.
Hoffmeister emphasized that Shopify is the only enterprise technology that helps merchants succeed in Agentic commerce, not just consumers.
Is Shopify Stock Undervalued?
Analysts who track Shopify stock predict that revenue will grow from $8.88 billion in 2024 to $26 billion in 2029. During this period, free cash flow (FCF) is expected to increase from $1.60 billion to $5.81 billion.
If Shopify stock is priced at 40 times forward FCF, which is lower than the annual average of 77 times, it should rise 60% over the next three years.
Shopify is 40% below its peak, not because the company has failed. It fell because software stocks got crushed in a random sell-off.
The company just doubled Black Friday sales in three years, is winning corporate deals at a 40% discount and is perfectly positioned for Agentic’s coming trading boom.
For investors building forever portfolios in tax-free savings accounts or registered retirement savings plans, this pullback created a starting point. Shopify isn’t going anywhere. The platform is too embedded, the vendor ecosystem too strong and the innovation pipeline too deep.
Sometimes the best investments come when everyone is selling.
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